RKMBs Forums .::Important::. Politics and Current Events Wow

... G-man's gone looney...

Your specific endorsement, I'd say. I've read it.

You can take my words or leave 'em, up to you, but you've really changed your tune lately. You've gone from being that Republican poster who people thought reasonable enough to make mod, to doing exactly the sort of thing you used to make fun of whomod for doing.

He has a great election team behind him and millions of supporters who are more energized than any I've ever seen. He's running against a Republican when being a Republican is wildly unpopular. Despite this, come November, Barack Obama will lose.

My name is Jason E Perkins, and I am a diehard Barack Obama fan. I truly and sincerely want him to be our next President. But as I sit here in my "Barack Obama: Change We Can Believe In" t-shirt, I can't help but admit that this November change will not come.

Here are the reasons why:

The Clinton Factor

Whether you supported Hillary, Barack, or someone else, you have to admit that Mrs. Clinton also ran one heckuva campaign. She was hard hitting and unwavering, even after Barack attained the delegate majority. She was a strong candidate who fought tooth and nail for every vote. These are undeniable truths.

But I come not to praise her.

In the end, her self-centered, near-Rovian run for the presidency cost Obama and the rest of the Democratic Party dearly. She spared no time or expense in badmouthing her fellow Democrat, continuously calling him unready to lead (among other things). By the time she half-heartedly released her delegates mere moments before the final delegate tally would have forced her to admit defeat, the damage had been done and the party had already been split in two. Even now, a large number of her loyal supporters have been so turned off to Obama that they can not pledge their support to him. Many have decided to relinquish their votes, while others have turned to the McCain/Palin ticket, even though it represents the ideological opposite of the candidate they once so fervently supported.

In review, her plan was obvious: claim the nomination by poisoning her opponent's image. It was a political strategy as old as America itself. It was not change. And though it may not have won her the 2008 nomination, it did succeed in making her subsequent support for Obama meaningless. In her DNC speech she called for party unity, but not before she reminded us all that many had voted for her, not him. And her words proved to have little impact on those who had already decided to deny Obama, the Democratic nominee, their vote. And that was good for her.

When Barack loses in 2008, thanks in part to Hillary Clinton's negative campaign, she will stand in the best position to claim the nomination and a win for the party in 2012. In losing this election she has secured her future. Checkmate.

The Biden Effect

On paper, Biden seemed like a good choice for a running mate. He had a working-class appeal to confront accusations of Obama's elitism. His long history in the U.S. Senate would stand well against Obama's lack thereof. Unlike Obama, he had foreign policy experience and had proven himself ready to get in his competition's face come duty's call. He had a compelling story--the death of his wife and year-old daughter in an automobile accident that also injured his sons--that spoke of both personal loss and a love for his children and country. Worried that Obama might be a covert Muslim terrorist? Don't worry, Biden is a lifelong attendant of the Catholic Church, impassioned by his faith. And let's not forget that Mr. Biden was a grey-haired white male, a dollar bill image that sat better with America as a whole than a white woman or Mexican man.

The reality of Joe has been quite different, however.

After adding Biden to the ticket, the Obama campaign received only the mildest of financial bumps. In fact, Obama received more money from contributors after Palin was added to the Republican ticket than after Biden joined his own. Obama's jump in the polls was even less noteworthy. Some polls showed no bounce at all.

The Biden Effect is that there has been no Biden Effect. In an election filled with historic firsts, Biden has seen the same problem as McCain: no one cares. And that includes the media. The image of a grey-haired white male fits almost too easily in the Washington socket. The idea just isn't noteworthy. It doesn't grab headlines or cable news viewers. Only six reporters accompanied Biden on his plane to a recent event. Palin, the Republican VP nominee, recently had so many journalists boarding her plane that some were asked to fly commercial, less they risk weighing the plane down too much.

Indeed the lack of publicity surrounding Biden has cost him his ability to do his job, to be the attack dog Obama obviously isn't. He can criticize McCain, Palin, and the current administation all he wants, but if no one's listening, he's just another tree falling in the woods.

The Palin Draw

In response to Obama's choice of Biden (see also: not Clinton) and Obama's goes-to-Washington image, McCain chose a running mate who was new, young, attractive, and quite noteably female. Her name was Sarah Palin.

Despite having approximately the same relatively small amount of experience on the national scene Republicans faulted Obama for1, she has become the darling of the GOP. She has drawn the attention of the American media and the admiration of many in the voting public.

In truth, Palin's draw has waned as her political stances and history have been revealed, but her approval rating is still strong and it still poses a threat to the Democrats in November. As I said, her impact has waned, but one important voting group has shown undying allegiance. It is a group without whom Obama cannot win: white women. One recent Newsweek poll showed the Republican McCain/Palin ticket with a 16 point lead among white women over the Democratic Obama/Biden ticket, marking a considerable reversal in this group's usual voting pattern.

Many white, female Democrats who supported Hillary Clinton felt snubbed by Obama's choice of Biden over Clinton as his running mate. Reportedly, many have chosen to side with the opposing ticket despite the fact that Governor Palin is a supporter of the continuation of the war in Iraq, anti-abortion (even in cases of rape and incest), pro-gun safety education for youth and a lifelong member of the NRA, against same-sex marriage and health benefits for same-sex couples, and pro-big oil, all of which Hillary Clinton is not. Many report being drawn to Palin's charm and soccer mom image.

Democrats have come to depend on the votes of white women, though. White women make up a considerably large and powerful group. As they turn from left to right, so does the election. If Obama does not gain the support of more white, female voters before November, there is little hope for his election.

The Race Issue

Obama is black (half black, actually, but black enough) and that fact may cost him the presidency. According to a recent AP poll, one third of white Democrats hold negative views of blacks in general. Even if we discount the possibility that the polling accuracy was thrown off by the Bradley Effect, the results of this survey mean that the number of white Democrats that may not vote for Obama based on the color of his skin is larger than the margin by which John Kerry lost in 2004. If this happens, McCain will win due to prejudice.

But discriminating whites aren't the only ones standing in Obama's way. One group, Blacks Against Obama, has begun interrupting Obama rallies with loud heckling and boos. Officially, the group believes that Obama has not shown enough support for the black community or black causes specifically. In short, Obama is not acting "black" enough.

His own race will prove Obama's most difficult dragon to slay. Too much talk about race and race relations will undoubtedly turn many white voters against him. Too little and a number of black voters will continue to work against the possibility of his historic nomination.

Hope

I've been asked to include in this blog any hopes I have for an Obama victory. Is victory possible? Yes, anything is. In truth, however, is that hope for the Obama campaign lies in the slim margins of several improbabilities:

If Hillary Clinton were to make a genuine call for votes, Obama could win. However, doing so would cost her the chance to run in 2012, so she won't.

If white, female voters were to sway back to the Democratic ticket, Obama could win. Without Clinton's genuine support or some other miracle, this is also unlikely.

If a reasonable number of African-Americans were to cast their ballets this November, Obama could win. If a reasonable number of people 18- to 24-years old were to cast their ballets this November, Obama could win. However, neither group has ever made a decent showing come election day, no matter how impactful the election. Currently, both groups have registered in record numbers, but while it's one thing to talk the talk, it's another to walk the walk. A rescue by either seems an unlikely prospect.

If race became a non-issue, Obama would stand a chance. If the Blacks Against Obama group decided to hold McCain to the same standard, it would be a good start. If people, both white and black, looked past race and considered the man, I believe Barack would win. And I believe this will eventually happen. It will happen on the same day that the Loch Ness Monster reveals himself as a country music fan.

So much for hope.

G-man's gone looney...

It's a breakfast cereal.

Bsams have always been crazy, that's part of his charm.

But I'm sorry to say that I have to agree with Jason about G-man. His behaviour lately has simply been sad and a little pathetic.

I don't consider myself to be particuliarly naive, but the thought that I
have been fooled into thinking that G-man was above this kind of behaviour saddens me

Further proof that you are retarded.

Well, at least Obama is not going to be my president!

G-man hasn't changed a bit. It's just that people are a lot more sensitive nowadays.

scary.

Well, at least Obama is not going to be my president!

....

It's getting waay too dangerous to criticize the democrats.

laugh all you want, it won't be long till Obama's Muslim extremists come for the gays too....

you dont believe Muslim extremists preach death to gays?

Gays or most people for that matter don't fare to well under extremists anything. Obama isn't one of those.