RKMBs Forums .::Important::. Politics and Current Events Sarah Palin for VP

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Until Wednesday night, many political professionals were whispering that there was a good chance that in picking Sarah Palin as his running mate John McCain had lost the election.

And some of them thought that with his last-minute, seemingly impulsive selection of a little-known and little-experienced governor he had lost his mind.

It’s as true on Thursday afternoon as it was on Wednesday that Palin is a risky pick. The public — and no doubt the McCain campaign as well — still doesn’t know what it doesn’t know about Palin, whose personal and public record in Alaska is still being raked by reporters and opposition researchers.

But in the space of one 36-minute speech by Palin, McCain proved that his choice was not a lapse into temporary (or even permanent) insanity. The speech’s political significance goes far beyond the fact that Palin showed herself capable of delivering a spirited reading of words that other people wrote.

Just as Barack Obama’s 2004 convention speech transformed his career, Palin’s speech has the potential to transform the dynamic of this race — in some ways that are obvious and some not:

• McCain is liberated

It is hard to overstate how underwhelmed most Republicans are by McCain and the current cast of GOP leaders. This was especially true of social conservatives, many of them religious evangelicals, who are most thrilled by Palin.

Now that Palin has cleared the bar — truth be told, a fairly modest one — of delivering an effective speech, McCain has much more flexibility to follow his own instincts.

He can play up reformist rhetoric and play down socially conservative ideology — the exact combination that in 2004 had some liberal commentators hoping McCain would abandon the GOP and go on the Democratic ticket.

Before Wednesday night, McCain was in big trouble when it comes to mobilizing conservative faithful. Now, Palin can help the party organize and turn out the same base of Christian evangelicals, Second Amendment supporters and abortion-rights opponents that proved instrumental to the back-to-back George W. Bush victories.

Before Wednesday night, McCain had little room for error with the right. They measured every word and made him pay for straying too far on the issues they care most about. Now, McCain can stretch and twist like a yoga instructor.

The key to watch in Thursday night’s acceptance speech is how McCain uses this new freedom —particularly his newfound ability to put even more distance between himself and a deeply unpopular president. It was no accident that the immediate response to Palin’s speech from the Obama campaign was to try to link her and McCain back to Bush.

• A competing storyline

Palin hasn’t seen the last of stories looking for contradictions or flaws in her record, or suggesting that her accomplishments or intellect are as substantial as a souffle.

But by presenting an engaging side of herself and her family, she ensured that those stories, written mainly by political and investigative reporters, will be countered by other stories written mainly by lifestyle reporters.

People magazine reporters and bookers for "The View" and "Oprah" will be watching Palin with a lot more interest than they will be watching Joe Biden. In Palin's own way, her story and rapid rise are as arresting to the mass audience as Obama’s.

And many voters in these big audiences likely will swoon for a telegenic hockey mom who eats moose she kills herself. You can’t make this stuff up. Her story is made for TV, glossy mags and the big screen.

A mother of five with a pregnant daughter. A ruggedly handsome husband who drills oil and races snowmobiles. She hunts. She fishes. She runs.

She is now a curiosity in a good way. That means big crowds at events and attention from people who otherwise might have ignored a more traditional ticket of two, old, rich, white Republican men who promise to kill terrorists and cut taxes.

None of this proves she understands the complexities of world threats or can endure the stress of office. But she at least gets more time to make her case. Before Wednesday night, she was only one or two news cycles away from irretrievably losing control of her public image.

• The hatchet man wears a skirt

Palin’s speech was a jackhammer of partisan shots and sarcastic digs. That is the traditional role of vice presidential nominees. But she performed that role with a smile and folksy humor, coming off like a younger, Republican version of the late Texas Gov. Ann Richards.

McCain needs Palin to tear into Obama and Biden in speeches, debates and media appearances. She showed she can do it, at least when given time to prep.

It remains to be seen how effective she can be in more improvisational settings. Biden has weathered national campaigns and controversies; she has not. Biden has traveled the world, mixed it up with tough foreign leaders and mastered the complexities of global threats; she has not. Biden has studied virtually every national issue and debated them; she has not.

But she has shown a willingness and talent for tough talk. And it will be harder than usual for Democrats to attack back. Republicans will charge sexism at every turn. They will call women to her side to amplify their case. They will shame the media. Many of these complaints will be unfair — but some of it will probably be effective.

• Republicans can play identity group politics too

This brand of politics — voters who support a candidate not because of what that person has done in public life but because of the symbolism of the candidate's personal story — is a big part of why Obama is the Democratic nominee. With Palin, the GOP showed that it, too, can play this game.

Tom DeLay, the former House majority leader, told us this week that his wife, who is even more conservative than he is, doesn’t think much of McCain. But she loves Palin, perhaps enough to get her to now back the GOP ticket. He said he was astonished how Palin has woken “the sleeping giant: Republican women.”

It is the talk of the hallways, in the convention and nationwide. Women, especially Republican women, were thrilled by the Palin speech. Already, the campaign is reporting a huge surge in fundraising. The bigger question is whether this will translate into a huge surge at the polls. Republicans get clobbered in national elections when it comes to the women’s vote. One way to narrow the gender gap is to juice turnout among your own people. Palin could do that. Another way is to juice turnout among female swing voters.

That’s still a tall order for Palin, but not the laughable one it was before Wednesday night.