Originally Posted By: the G-man
While at first glance you'd think that such a scenario would favor the Clinton machine, the reality is that her institutional support within the party has erroded in the past few weeks, both because of Obama's victories and some of the nastiness that her and Bill have been throwing out there.

If Obama is otherwise doing well and she tries takes victory away from him with superdelegates, or were she to engage in a protracted battle to have Michigan and Florida seated at the convention, I suspect it would only turn more Democrats against her.


It's interesting that you frame it as her taking victory away from Obama with superdelegates. This would only happen if it's a relatively slim margin between them, essentially a tie. She can't make superdelegates pick her, she can only do what Obama is doing & that is trying to convince them that their the best one for the job. His sermon styled stump speach is probably less impressive to superdelegates in general than someone like Hillary who is comfortable with talking about the issues & finished a Senate term.

Resolving Florida & Michigan in a way that doesn't hurt the party is going to be what interests superdelegates more. If Hillary does come out ahead in the delegate total, it would be very easy to seat those two states. If it's Obama, he won't won't let them be seated if it means he loses. That will be a big problem in the general election. Saying "sorry but it's the rules & your votes mean nothing" won't cut it.

Fair play!