RKMBs Forums .::Robegories::. Sports and Wrestling CROSSCHECK 8.8.05 - How much is a goal worth?

From the look of things, 10 goals seems to be worth $1 million, give or take a few hundered thousand.

How do I know this?

Look at the market.

Ziggy Palffy, a three-time 40-goal scorer signed for $4.5 million/year. Not counting the '03-'04 season that he spent most of on injured reserve, the three seasons before that he scored an average of 35 goals.

Pavol Demitra, who had three 35+ goal seasons, also signed for $4.5 million/year. Demetra is known more for racking up assists than scoring goals, with two 50+ assist seasons.

Milan Hejduk, one-time 50-goal scorer, who scored 35 goals in '03-'04, signed for $3.7 million/year.

Finally, there is Rick Nash, the youngest player to lead the league in goals. The 21-year old Nash signed a five year deal with Columbus for $27 million ($5.4 million/year). Nash scored 41 goals in the last NHL season.

The question is, how can I say 10 goals is worth $1 million when they are clearly worth more? My answer is that the NHL has created rules that should increase the offense. The biggest being that the goalies will shrink. Allowing two-line passes will create a few more breaks per game. But these guys will really earn their money should their teams go to shootouts to end tied games.

Hejduk is a steal, and I expect Palffy and Demitra to score 40+ goals this year. Nash should score 50+. That's the market. Hopefully, that's the way it will stay.

Of course, there are some players with monster contracts from the previous system that are being grandfathered in. There are also franchise players, like Jarome Iginla. Iginla is a game breaker, so for him to get $7 million/year makes sense. Nash could be earning an equal contract after this five year deal is up. By the way, Nash will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this contract. Chances are, he'll be setting the mark that year.

I began tracking player movements in the last CROSSCHECK 8.1.05 - Open Season, and will now continue to do so in this thread.

Of course, the opposite question is how much is not letting in a goal worth? The Red Wings and Chris Osgood decided it's worth $900,000 for one year. Osgood returns to the team he won two Stanley Cups with. He'll be competing with Manny Legace for the starting job. I expect about a 45/37 split for the season.

In other news, Colorado fans are probably getting ready to burn commissioner Gary Bettman in effigy. The reason? Todd Bertuzzi has been reinstated. This gives everyone a reason to talk about hockey again, right?

Easy, now. First, no one died. Second, there is more than one side to this.

Bettman fought for a long time, and succeded, in getting a cap in place. He's actually the good guy here. Is he the best guy to be running the NHL? No. He's not an old-time-hockey fan. He's a basketball guy. He learned how to run a league from David Stern. Not a bad thing, but when it comes to discipline, well...Stern just this past season finally got the job done.

Still, talk to the real hockey fans, and we want to be able to say "I went to a fight and a hockey game broke out!" The Gordie Howe hatrick (a goal, an assist, and a fight in one game) is rare. Darren McCarty did have a few last season, but in my opinion, that should be an official stat.

What's worse, is the extinction of the true power forward. There used to be an unofficial stat called the power forward's hatrick. It consisted of a player scoring 50 goals, 100 points, and compiling 200 penalty minutes in one season.

Under Gary Bettman's reign as commissioner, all of those stats have almost disappeared. In the last season, the most goals scored was 41. No one had 100 points. Fighting is almost nonexistant today. When it does happen, we get a Bertuzzi incident.

What has happened is an increase in stick work and cluting and grabbing. Plus, a whole lot of cheap shots to star players. It used to be that teams would have an average of two enforcers ont he bench. Marty McSorely made his career as Wayne Gretzky's bodyguard.

To win the Stanley Cup in '97 and '98, the Wings realized they needed a second, and more importantly, full time enforcer, because they couldn't afford to lose Darren McCarty all the time. They found one of the best enforcers in the NHL playing in a bear league, and gave him a contract. His name was Joe Kocur. This was his second stint with the Wings. He played on the original Grind Line with Draper and Maltby. And for his first fight, he beat up best friend, and former teammate and Bruise Brother, Bob Probert, the other most feared enforcer at the time. No one took another cheap shot at the Wings' stars with Kocur on the bench.

Back when the players policed themselves, little punks didn't try to make names for themselves by injuring the big guns. Claude Lemieux pissed of Cam Neely once while he was with New Jersey in '95. Neely didn't take too kindly to that, and tossed the turtle all over a corner of the ice. It wasn't pretty.

Peter Forsberg never had a chance in Europe. There is not fighting over there. When that punk went after him, he had nothing to fear. There was no Probert or Kocur or Domi to come off the bench on the next shift. In Europe, the cheap shots are worse than in America. At least fighting is still legal here, even if it is limitted.

Over the last 8 years, the league has been trying to take away the players' ability to protect themselves, thinking that fines and suspensions work better. Nothing works better than a good beating. Not in an emotional, physical game like hockey.

When Steve Moore checked Nasland, giving him a cuncussion, no one could fight him then. Moore didn't mean to hurt Naslund. But had there not been an instigator rule, Moore would have had to face Bertuzzi on his next shift. It wouldn't have been as brutal. Moore would have probably walked away with a bloody nose. He would have taken his licks, appologized for the hit, and that would have been the end of it.

Instead, Vancouver had to wait. What made it worse was their hotheaded coach. Same guy who was the coach in Colorado during the Lemieux hit on Draper. Same guy who coached two games, one in each of the following years, against with Red Wings, where everyone on the ice brawled, even the goalies. Truth is, those were some good times. Fighting was still present, and hockey was still fun.

The anger had to stir in Vancouver, and all night long the next time they met Colorado, everyone wanted a piece of Moore. Moore didn't shy away. He dropped the gloves. Once. That should have been it. He took his punches. He thought he had attoned. After all, Naslund would be back, and it was an accident. But players still wanted a piece of him. The coach should have seen that. He should have kept Moore off the ice. But it was the end of the game, and Moore was a very good defensive center, protecting and important lead.

What Bertuzzi did was inexcusable. Moore never saw it coming, and we all know what happened.

I think Bertuzzi should have sat for another year. He wasn't able to play in Europe this past year. I think he should have beened banned from the NHL and international compition, but no banned from a European league.

However, Moore may be on his way to being cleared to return to hockey. I don't know that he will. But it might be a possibility. Along with that is all the positive talk about the NHL right now. The league wasn't going to make him sit for more than 20 games this year.

There are politics involved. Canada may want Bertuzzi in the Olympics.

There are other issues as well.

Vancouver needs Bertuzzi because now they have a real shot at winning the Stanley Cup. They still need a goaltender, but everything else in place.

As for why now instead of December?

Right now, everyone is talking about how the small market teams can compete right now. This is a new NHL. This NHL is going to be very exciting to watch in a few more years as more talented youngsters from Europe and the US break in. And there will be a lot more talent from the US. USA Hockey is doing an amazing job in recruiting and teaching a new generation of stars. While everyone is talking about that, the NHL can simply slip Bertuzzi back in, and while he will get some attention, the negative reaction will be squashed by the positive outlook.

By the way, the decision was made back in April that Bertuzzi would be reinstated this year. They just waited until now to announce it.

There is a report on the net that the Penguins have agreed to a two year $3 million contract with goaltender Sean Burke. This is good news for Penguins fans. Burke gives them the veteran backup they need to help Marc-Andre Fleury along for the next two years. Should Fleury falter, Burke can readily step in. However, for Pittsburgh's sake, let's hope Fleury is ready now. Burke had his best seasons in recent years in Phoenix. The Cayotes played a little something called defense. I don't know if the Penguins ever bothered learning the meaning of the word.

That report about Burke signing with the Penguins for two years at $3 million? I got that from ESPN. Apparently it's wrong, because there is a conflicting report out of SLAM! that seems a lot more official:

Quote:

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...
The Lightning also tried to fill the loss of Nikolai Khabibulin to Chicago by signing free-agent goaltender Sean Burke to a $3.2-million, two year deal. Burke, 38, is a 16-year NHL veteran who served as the backup goaltender for the Philadelphia Flyers during the 2004 playoffs. He has appeared in 762 career games with seven teams with a record of 304-321-101 and a goals-against average of 2.96 and 35 shutouts.

"We did a lot of homework on Sean, and we believe that not only will he come in and compete with John Grahame and battle for the No. 1 spot, but if he doesn't win that contest he will be a 'team first' player," said Feaster.
...

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I think ESPN needs to redo their homework.

Graham is expected to be the #1, I think. Burke should help push him along as the season goes on. But if the Lightning are to be successful, Graham needs to be the guy to take it to the next level.

The Penguins missed out on Sean Burke but I think they got a better goalie in trading a 4th round draft pick in the 2006 entry draft to Chicago for Jocelyn Thibault. Thibault is an outstanding goalie who will give the Penguins a very effective option should Fluery falter. I expect the Penguins to begin the season with the starting spot up for grabs. Thibault and Fluery could end up splitting the season, with the coach naming one to start the playoffs. Pittsburgh needs a goalie who can handle being left out to dry, and Thibault is used to that.

The Toronto Maple Leafs look to be in better shape than everyone thought, even though this article from SLAM! has a bit of a negative slant to it. None of their players have elected salary arbitration, so it's expected that most of them will accept their qualifying offers. Here is a list from the article to help illustrate their situation:

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

APPROX. CAP ROOM LEFT: $6.7M

* FORWARDS

Mats Sundin 6,840,000

Darcy Tucker 1,596,000

Jeff O'Neill 1,500,000

Jason Allison 1,500,000

Tie Domi 1,250,000

Matt Stajan 805,600

Chad Kilger 668,800

Nik Antropov 1,000,000*

Nathan Perrott 450,000*

Alexei Ponikarovsky 450,000*

* DEFENCE

Bryan McCabe 3,458,000

Tomas Kaberle 2,280,000

Ken Klee 1,900,000

Alex Khavanov 1,250,000

Aki Berg 1,064,000

Wade Belak 800,000

Karel Pilar 450,000*

* GOAL

Eddie Belfour 4,560,000

Mikael Tellqvist 450,000

I believe the * are the players who have yet to sign, so the salaries are projected. Their defense looks solid. It's basically the same group from the last season. Goaltending is set. They have 10 forwards pencilled in. They are talking with Eric Lindros and Anson Carter, and if they can work out deals with both Toronto natives to play for the home team for less, then they just need to bring in two more forwards cheap, and they are set. My guess is Carter is looking for $3.5 million. Lindros may be looking for the same, but he should take a one year deal for less, maybe $2 million. Lindros needs to prove he can be healthy. He doesn't want to admit it, but that's the way it is. Next summer, Toronto will be dropping some contracats, so if Lindros finally returns to form this year, they will be able to sign him for more long term.

Even without Lindros and Carter, the team doesn't look so bad. John Leclair and Jamie Langenbrunner might be viable options. Also, Mogilny has yet to sign anywhere. Who knows, maybe he'll want to return? There are still some good forwards out there, and it looks like Toronto does have some money to work with.

The thing to remember about Toronto is that they have always played their best when they were supposed to suck. It was only the last couple of seasons that saw the Leafs spending recklessly. Had they been smarter then, maybe they would have been in better shape. They need to work on their scouting and farm teams right now. They will need a steady influx of young talent if they want to compete in the future. For now, they should be alright. But the teams that draft well and develop their own talent from within are the teams that will dominate this new era of the NHL.

The Leafs finally signed Eric Lindros to a one year $1.55 million contract. There are games played bonuses, and that's all I know. If Lindros is healthy, and Allison is healthy, and O'Neill is back in 40 goal form, and Sunding is dominant as usual, the Leafs have got two outstanding scoring lines, better than anything they've had in years. Plus, they are trying to sign Anson Carter, and that might actually be a possibility. Expect Lindros and Allison to play center, with Sunding and O'Neil playing the right wing. That's just my prediction, so it might not be worth much.

The bigger news is that Joe Thornton signed a three year $20 million ($6.66 million/year) contract to stay in Boston. For the first time in years, Boston might be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.