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With bids in for Matsuzaka, hopeful winners wait: Quote:
The bids are now in for Daisuke Matsuzaka, and the Seibu Lions could accept - and announce - the winning offer as soon as today, and no later than Tuesday. At that point, the designated team can begin contract discussions with Scott Boras, Matsuzaka's agent.
The Yankees placed a bid for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, and while the Mets wouldn't confirm their actions, they have long held an interest in the Japanese righthander and intended to make a serious bid.
The Rangers announced their intentions to bid for Matsuzaka prior to yesterday's 5 p.m. EST deadline, while the Red Sox and Cubs are also believed to be bidders. Major League Baseball, sensitive to leaks on this matter, ordered clubs yesterday to not comment on whether they even made bids for Matsuzaka.
Baseball's central office informed the Lions yesterday of the amount of the winning bid, but not the team that placed that bid. The Lions will learn the identity of the bidder only upon accepting the bid.
Sankei Sports reported last night that Seibu wouldn't make its decision until its executive board meets. That meeting could happen as early as Friday in Japan - meaning an announcement of a decision could come tonight - but it also could be pushed past the weekend.
Matsuzaka, 26, is considered the most promising Japanese pitching prospect to ever come West. He figures to command a four- or five-year contract for about $12 million a season.
In Japan's unusual posting system, the winning bid - for the right to negotiate with Matsuzaka - was originally expected to be between $20 million and $30 million. However, Newsday's David Lennon, covering the Japan Series, reported yesterday that the number might fall closer to the $13 million the Mariners paid the Orix Blue Wave to negotiate with Ichiro Suzuki, back in 2000.
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So, reports are indicating that it's probably going to come down to the Red Sox, Cubs, Rangers, and, of course, the Mets and Yankees. The Mariners, once thought to be the favorite, are saying they are no longer interested, as are the Dodgers, Angels, Giants and Orioles.
The Diamondbacks are apparently interested and have made a bid, which is a scary thought, given the talent they've assembled in the last couple of years.
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whats yer guess on this guy's MLB performance?
more like hideki irabu? or more like hideki matsui?
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Well, stuff-wise, scouts are saying this guy would be a legitimate #1 pitcher for just about any team. He throws in the low-mid 90's, has a good slider and curveball. He showed in the WBC that he can get good major league hitters out. The "gyroball" thing appears to be more legend than fact, as I've yet to see any definitive proof of it.
The thing that worries me, slightly, and this seems to be something most news reports are neglecting to mention, is that some of Japan's pitching practices would be considered insanely abusive here. For example, Matzusaka threw a 250-pitch, 17-inning complete game once. MLB pitchers don't throw that much in a week. You could, perhaps, make the argument that, since Japanese pitchers are conditioned to throw large pitch totals at an early age, they're not as likely to break down as American pitchers, who are protected and at times coddled to avoid injury. Maybe you'd be right, I dunno. Livan Hernandez says that in Cuba his coach would basically have him complete every start, and throw 50-100 pitches on the side every day, and that it was that extreme regiment that gave him his stamina today.
In my opinion(and I'm not alone on this), the workload makes him a good candidate for arm blowout somewhere down the line. Still, for the next couple of years, I don't see any reason he can't be another Nomo(who, it's worth noting, never had any severe arm troubles).
Jim Albright, who knows more about Japanese baseball than I know about anything, has done some fantastic research on translating their game to the MLB, and predicting how Japanese stars would do or might have done here(he has an article on Sadaharu Oh that is especially excellent). He charts Matsuzaka using his new pitcher projection method, and this is how Matsuzaka's last two seaons translate to pro-ball(assuming a neutral home park):
2005: 30 GS, 14 W, 11 L, 231.33 IP, 220 H, 19 HR, 63 BB, 238 K, 3.72 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2006: 27 GS, 14 W, 8 L, 202.67 IP, 177 H, 19 HR 43 BB, 211 K, 3.14 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Those are pretty good numbers(borderline Cy-Young caliber), and keep in mind, he's only 26.
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Aaaaaand I double-posted.
I think he'll be pretty good, and possibly great.
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I heard a story on local radio where a columnist from the Fort Worth Star Telegram (I forget his name) said the reason that the Mariners dropped out is because the principle owner of the Mariners (who also heads Nintendo) has had a major pissing match over the years with the owner of the team that Matsuzaka plays for and has no interest in giving him money for posting in order to secure the rights to Matsuzaka.
Interesting that would come into play. Typically, Mr. Yamaguchi will go all out for good players from Japan.
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Somebody told me that Buster Olney said on ESPN radio that Boston won the bid, but I haven't seen anything confirming it yet.
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Word is the Red Sox had the winning bid, but still no confirmation. 
"You kind of get tired giving the other team credit. At some point you've got to look in the mirror and say 'I sucked.'"
Alex Rodriguez, after the NY Yankees were eliminated from the 2006 ALDS by the Detroit Tigers.
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Peter Gammons is reporting the Red Sox made the highest bid at $42 million, and now it's up to the Seibu Lions to decide if they're going to accept the bid or not. That's a lot more than I, and most everyone, thought the top bid would be. Frankly, I'm not sure he's worth that much, and I'm wondering if Boston really intends to negotiate with Matsuzaka. There have been rumors going around that Boston made this bid just to make sure the Yankees wouldn't get him. $42 million is one expensive cock-block, though.
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cripes.
if true, i'd be glad the yanks didn't go this route. i still dunno how to value the abilities of non major leaguers coming to the major leagues. and then the added pressure of being a pitcher in fenway (or yankee stadium), and for post seasons... its such a huge gamble, even for guys we've seen pitch for years (i.e; randy johnson)
this just seems like an enormous risk
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Agreed. He'll most likely be asking for the same kind of money Barry Zito is, which means all told it could be $100 million plus investment, if he signs. Even if he doesn't completely flop, he'll have to be awfully good to justify that.
My opinion is that whatever quality of pitcher Matsuzaka is was not the biggest factor in this move, and that Boston did this for two reasons:
1.To assure the Yanks didn't get him
2.To get the boost in television revenue from the Asian market that New York and Seattle have been hoarding the last few years.
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I agree with your reason #1 moreso than reason #2. I don't know if tapping into the Asian market is that much of an issue to clubs on the East Coast. However, the rivalry between the Yankees and the Red Sox is enough that it wouldn't surprise me that the Red Sox were motivated to outdo the Yankees. Both teams have been guilty of such actions more often than not.
Still, that's too much to simply have the right to negotiate a contract with him. For all they know he might be the next Hideki Irabu.
There's always left-handed starter Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers, who will also post soon and shouldn't be as expensive. He's 27 years old, has a 93 mph fastball and 3 strikeout titles. He fanned 194 this season, was a 20 game winner in 2003 and was 14-9 this season with a 2.97 ERA. With Jaime Moyer in Philly and Gil Meche being allowed to walk as a free agent, Seattle can't afford to let him pass by, IMO.
Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Greg Maddux and Mark Mulder seem to top everyone's pitching list, with Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly, Adam Eaton, Jeff Weaver, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Steve Traschel, Andy Pettitte, Woody Williams and Chan Ho Park being in the middle of the pack.
No one here impresses me, really. Some of them are reclamation projects. Maybe this is why teams were willing to spend money to talk to Matsuzaka. What else is out there?
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Quote:
jafabian said:
I agree with your reason #1 moreso than reason #2. I don't know if tapping into the Asian market is that much of an issue to clubs on the East Coast. However, the rivalry between the Yankees and the Red Sox is enough that it wouldn't surprise me that the Red Sox were motivated to outdo the Yankees. Both teams have been guilty of such actions more often than not.
Well, the Yankees get a great deal of exposure overseas due to the presence of a Japanese superstar like Hideki Matsui. Jersey sales, television broadcasts, that can add up to a nice pile of green.
Quote:
There's always left-handed starter Kei Igawa of the Hanshin Tigers, who will also post soon and shouldn't be as expensive. He's 27 years old, has a 93 mph fastball and 3 strikeout titles. He fanned 194 this season, was a 20 game winner in 2003 and was 14-9 this season with a 2.97 ERA. With Jaime Moyer in Philly and Gil Meche being allowed to walk as a free agent, Seattle can't afford to let him pass by, IMO.
He doesn't throw in the 90's, but Igawa is a guy that's starting to get more attention, especially now that the Matsuzaka bidding is over. He's said that he wants to play on the west coast, so you may get your wish.
Quote:
Jason Schmidt, Barry Zito, Greg Maddux and Mark Mulder seem to top everyone's pitching list, with Miguel Batista, Ted Lilly, Adam Eaton, Jeff Weaver, Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Steve Traschel, Andy Pettitte, Woody Williams and Chan Ho Park being in the middle of the pack.
No one here impresses me, really. Some of them are reclamation projects. Maybe this is why teams were willing to spend money to talk to Matsuzaka. What else is out there?
That's kind of the same way it's been every year. The best you'll get is an aging star like Pedro Martinez or Jason Schmidt.
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Holy piss. $51.1 million!Man, and to think, I thought Buster Olney was on crack when he said Boston's bid was $40 million. According to reports, the Mets came in second, bidding 39-40 mil, followed by the Yankees, who were around 32-33 mil, and the Rangers, who bid around 27 mil. So, um, congratulations Boston! You can now...ask the guy how much more money he wants.
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that is fucking ridiculous.
what kind of stats could justify a $50 million conference call? i mean, assuming the bosox sign him for 4 years at 9 mil a piece (the speculated guess) ... what impossibly high standards would matsuzaka have to live up to in order to support his averaged $22 mil / year salary?
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Quote:
Animalman said:
Well, the Yankees get a great deal of exposure overseas due to the presence of a Japanese superstar like Hideki Matsui. Jersey sales, television broadcasts, that can add up to a nice pile of green.
I just think the Yankees can make up with that with another one of their infamous television contracts that they seem to pull out of their cap every year. Rob would know more, but it's my understanding their East Coast Canadian contract alone is enormous.
Quote:
He doesn't throw in the 90's, but Igawa is a guy that's starting to get more attention, especially now that the Matsuzaka bidding is over. He's said that he wants to play on the west coast, so you may get your wish.
Sorry, I should have posted a link, but the Seattle Post Intelligencer reported otherwise, and in fact really pump him up as a viable candidate. The fact that he's a lefty makes him a good candidate to replace Jaime Moyer.
The Seattle P-I is also reporting that the M's are talking with Tomo Ohka and have an interest in Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito. All three the proverbial reclamation project. Maybe not Schmidt, but he has health issues and the M's haven't had much luck with NL players transitioning to the AL anyways. I imagine they'll talk to either or both if the price is right. I question if the M's will offer them 1 year deals with an option, like they did with Bret Boone in 2001. I think that might be the best that Zito could get. If he can't pitch decent at Safeco Field, he's got problems.
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Quote:
Rob Kamphausen said:
that is fucking ridiculous.
what kind of stats could justify a $50 million conference call? i mean, assuming the bosox sign him for 4 years at 9 mil a piece (the speculated guess) ... what impossibly high standards would matsuzaka have to live up to in order to support his averaged $22 mil / year salary?
At least when Steinbrenner is cussing him out, he won't understand him!
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Quote:
jafabian said:
Intelligencer
heh.
Quote:
jafabian said:
Quote:
Animalman said:
Well, the Yankees get a great deal of exposure overseas due to the presence of a Japanese superstar like Hideki Matsui. Jersey sales, television broadcasts, that can add up to a nice pile of green.
I just think the Yankees can make up with that with another one of their infamous television contracts that they seem to pull out of their cap every year. Rob would know more, but it's my understanding their East Coast Canadian contract alone is enormous.
the japanese exposure is a mighty plus. satellite broadcasts of the game, japanese ads / sponsors that they splash behind matsui when he's at bat and in outfield billboards, plus a whole new generation of asian fans to further that into the future.
the yankees have a brazillion other financial outlets, be it radio or canada or their own friggin network, but picking up a big japanese player like this opens up new doors.
that said, you must also face the possibility that the novelty of doing so has worn thin. ichiro being the first big name, and matsui being the triple h-like king of kings, its difficult to speculate how much interest is left for the 3rd, 4th, 5th big names.
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Quote:
jafabian said:
Sorry, I should have posted a link, but the Seattle Post Intelligencer reported otherwise, and in fact really pump him up as a viable candidate. The fact that he's a lefty makes him a good candidate to replace Jaime Moyer.
Well, I've seen him pitch a few times, and you can too, thanks to the power of youtube. He throws mainly 140-142 kph(87-88 mph), but with a terrific changeup and good curve. He might throw a little harder in the big leagues, since pitching philosophies are different. Japanese league pitchers are left out there longer, so they usually try to pace themselves.
Quote:
The Seattle P-I is also reporting that the M's are talking with Tomo Ohka and have an interest in Jason Schmidt and Barry Zito. All three the proverbial reclamation project.
I don't think Schmidt or Zito are really reclamation projects...they both aren't as good as they were two years ago, and they probably aren't to get any better, but they have valuable, in the right environment. I, personally, think Zito is overrated, but I admit my disinterest in him comes mainly from the fact that the Rangers media and fans have been talking about how great he is and how much of a fool Tom Hicks would be not to go after him. Zito is not a good fit in Texas, but he'd probably do alright in Seattle. Still the west coast, a spacious ballpark where fly-balls die young, and quite the music scene to try to launch his career(a joke).
Quote:
I question if the M's will offer them 1 year deals with an option, like they did with Bret Boone in 2001. I think that might be the best that Zito could get.
Like him or not, Zito is going to get a max deal, probably $10 million a year plus. He's the highest profile pitcher available, and will be grossly overpaid, I'm sure.
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I think Anaheim and Seattle should go after Zito. In the AL West the road to the playoffs goes thru Oakland and both teams need staring pitching. He might even give some insight to the Oakland organization and such a move would piss off Bill Beane, which is always fun. Looks like Yahoo Sports is reporting that Frank Thomas is close to signing a deal with Toronto. So already someone's trying to dismantle the A's.
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Quote:
heh
It's a newspaper for intelligent people. I don't even want to know who the Buffalo Beast is put out for.
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Quote:
jafabian said:
I think Anaheim and Seattle should go after Zito. In the AL West the road to the playoffs goes thru Oakland and both teams need staring pitching. He might even give some insight to the Oakland organization and such a move would piss off Bill Beane, which is always fun.
Barry Zito can bring many things to that organization, but having heard Zito give more than a few interviews, I do not believe insight is one of those things.
As for the A's, "dismantling" is what they do every year. Thomas is supposedly getting $30, for two or three years, which is a little on the risky side, given Hurt's age and injury history. Trying to match that offer wouldn't be cost-effective for Beane. He got cheap production from Thomas, Thomas got the big payoff from somebody else.
The good money says the A's will move on, find somebody new and cheap to fill the holes left by the two free agents, and still win 85 games or so next year.
Of course, there's even the possibility that Oakland will open its checkbook for once and give Barry Bonds a ring. His agent made this comment yesterday:
"There are teams that don't characteristically sign free-agent players such as Barry that called and said they were interested. I was a little surprised."
Sounds like a team I know!
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not as bad, but pretty close Yankees win rights to Igawa
By RONALD BLUM, AP Baseball WriterThe New York Yankees won the bidding for Japanese pitcher Kei Igawa when the Hanshin Tigers accepted their offer of about $25 million Tuesday.
The identity of the winning team was disclosed by a baseball official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the commissioner's office had not yet released the information. An official annoucement was scheduled for 8 p.m. EST.
After the bidding closed Monday, the Tigers were informed of the amount of the high bid, but not which team made it. The New York Mets bid about $15 million for Igawa, another baseball official said, also on condition of anonymity.
The Yankees will have until midnight at the end of Dec. 28 to work out a contract with the 27-year-old left-hander. Igawa is represented by Arn Tellem, also the agent for Yankees left fielder Hideki Matsui.
The Yankees pay Hanshin only if they reach an agreement for Igawa.
Igawa went 14-9 last season with a 2.97 ERA in Japan. He struck out 194 to tie for the Central League lead, adding to the strikeout titles he won in 2002 and 2004.
Igawa has an 86-60 record with a 3.15 ERA. He would have to play in Japan for three more seasons before he could become a free agent.
The Boston Red Sox bid $51.1 million earlier this month to win the right to negotiate with Seibu Lions pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka, the MVP of the World Baseball Classic. The Red Sox have until midnight on Dec. 14 to agree to a deal with Matsuzaka and his agent, Scott Boras.
Also this month, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays won the rights to Japanese infielder Akinori Iwamura of the Yakult Swallows with a bid of about $4.5 million.
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Jetlagged from my 16 hour flight, I slept all day and now I'm very awake at 4 AM. As has been reported, talks between Matsuzaka and Boston have stalled, and with the Thursday deadline approaching, it's looking more and more like the "$50 million cockblock" I mentioned earlier, though it's hardly a certainty yet. Boras remains adamant his guy is woth $100 million. $150 million for a pitcher that hasn't thrown a single pitch in the MLB is well...erm, curious? While I was away, the Red Sox signed J.D Drew for a lot of money. Probably a bit too much, but J.D Drew is a very good player, and while his injury record is the length of a Victor Hugo novel, he did establish a career high in games played last year, and the time he missed in '05 was from a wild pitch that broke his hand, not from a chronic problem. Objectively, it's a sound move I think, although personally I am ambivalent(I love J.D; I very much do not love the Red Sox).
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