Yes. I've been following this for a while.
Syria is a proxy war between Russia and the United States. Australian aircraft recently bombed some Assad soldiers. Whoops.
There is a special forces regiment and the base of the Australian submarine squadron near my house so I guess my garden will wilt when the city is nuked.
Here is a massive oversimplification of cause and effect:
a. Russia annexes Abhkazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. No one does anything about it. Lesson learned. 2008. Crude oil at all-time high, $145 a barrel, July 2008.
b. Oil prices go down because of shale oil.
c. Russians become unhappy as the price of everything goes up as oil was propping up economy.
d. Putin says it is a Western conspiracy. Russians increasing buzzing Western allies:
2011.
e. Russia distracts citizens and keeps military happy with an invasion of Ukraine. NATO fails to challenge it militarily. Lesson learned. 2014.
f. December 2014 - Ukraine enters into cooperation agreement with NATO.
g. Oil prices continue to spiral. By June 2014 down to $115 a barrel. But by Feb 2015, down to $35 a barrel. Sanctions over Ukraine bite - Russian companies lose access to Western credit, unable to refinance debt.
h. Russia distracts citizens and keeps military happy with support of Syria. Refuses to engage in airspace protocol with Western combat aircraft. October 2015.
i. Russia says its pulling out. Mission accomplished!... oh but not really.
j. Turkey shoots down Russian jet. Russians very unhappy. Install heavy duty SAMs and Krashuka-4 platform (advanced jammer). November 2015.
k. US special forces numbers dramatically increase in Syria. April 2016.
k. Russian hackers are accused of interfering in US elections. More individuals subject to assets frozen, travel bans, Gazprom subsidiaries targeted. These sanctions really bit hard. September 2016.
l. Crude oil currently at $50 a barrel. Still very poor price - OPEC two weeks ago agreed to slow production in order to lift prices. Russia starts talking about direct war with the West in the media. Russian military drills on Ukrainian border. US policymakers distracted by election and US lawmakers in bipartisan deadlock. October 2016.
Bear in mind Putin is worth an estimated $200 billion. Sanctions really bite him personally in the arse.
Anyway, its all looking a bit grim.
