Yeah. Did you catch the "Normandy" discussions yesterday? Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and the president of the Ukraine. Merkel was telling reporters even before the meeting that it didn't look promising.
No. I hadn't heard a thing until you mentioned it. Googling it...
http://www.dw.com/en/little-optimism-after-normandy-format-meeting/a-36106924...I only found Russian and European media reporting it, and not even the final result.
If the Baltic states were not members of NATO I'd say they'd be deeply unhappy by recent events. Turkey as a member of NATO dodged Russian wrath when that shot down that Sukhoi fighter.
I still think that Russia, for all its destructive power, will lose any territory they seize, over the long term. They are militarily strong, but (even more so than the U.S.) are a diminishing power, with a shrinking population and declining economic resources.
WW1 was a bit different as there was an expectation of a war by everyone, and it was even welcomed by all parties as a way of venting nationalistic pride. Incidentally, the Kaiser's war effort was a European common customs treaty which would have excluded the UK (hello EU). In this instance however we have no real war objective from either the West or Putin, other than Putin's desire to claim territory inhabited by Russian speakers. Practically speaking, I'm guessing there isn't much left that he hasn't already grabbed so that might be the end of it in so far as invasions go.
I read a long time ago that most Europeans (at the man-on-the-street level) thought the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in Sarajevo was a minor diplomatic incident that would blow over in a few weeks, and were horrified when it blew up into war. Even at the highest levels of power, while they had new inventions like tanks and guns and mustard gas, and were eager to try them out, it was only when Russia's Tsar Nicholas II mobilized his infantry that Germany declared war on Russia. Austria-Hungary had made 10 demands of Serbia to avoid war, and Serbia honored 9 and 1/2 of the 10 demands! It was known to the Germans that Russia and France had a mutual defense pact, but it was unknown to the Germans that Britain was secretly also part of that Russia-France alliance. If the Germans had known, the Germans would not have declared war, and would have told the Austrians to further negotiate, knowing that they could not win with Britain as part of the alliance.
If I had to pick a Russian frontier which would bring about a war, I'd choose Iran and their long-standing Caspian Sea dispute. Iran has few friends, is a fair-weather ally of Russia in respect of the airbase, and the US would barely mutter a word about a Russian maritime claim over the sea.
Edit: I see also that the Caspian Sea contains oil reserves. Aha.
I see things coming to a head with Iran's nuclear program reaching fruition. That war would start when Israel (either with or without the U.S.) bombs facilities in Iran to prevent their nuclear capability. And since Iran has thousands of Russian engineers assisting and working in Iran's facilities, such an attack could kill thousands of Russians. This would be the equivalent of a 9-11 on Russia, that would obligate them to join an Iranian/muslim coalition to strike back at Israel.
