RED STATE DEMS FACE NIGHHTMARE SCENARIO ON KAVANAUGHSenate Democrats up for reelection this year in deep-red states face a nightmare decision on how to handle Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.
Vulnerable Democrats are hoping Republicans will force him to withdraw his nomination, allowing them to avoid politically divisive votes.
The Democrats in the toughest position are Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), and Joe Manchin (W.Va.)
Heitkamp and Manchin are undecided, and both are seeking another six-year term in states that Trump won by double digits in 2016. Donnelly is in much the same boat but said on Friday that he would vote "no" on Kavanaugh.
All three voted for President Trump’s first Supreme Court pick, Neil Gorsuch, in 2017.
But this time around the partisan divide is much more bitter: The seat Kavanaugh has been tapped to fill will likely determine the balance of the court for years, and a confirmation vote is slated to take place a month before Election Day.
The Democratic base is much more fired up about Kavanaugh than it was about Gorsuch, who was confirmed in April 2017.
Liberal activists staged a sit-in Monday at Manchin’s campaign office in West Virginia in an effort to pressure him to vote against the nominee.
One Democratic senator, who requested anonymity, said there’s hopeful talk within the Senate Democratic Caucus that Kavanaugh will drop out, even though he has adamantly vowed to stay.
The lawmaker said Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) is urging undecided centrist Democrats to wait until three undecided Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski(Alaska), and Jeff Flake (Ariz.) — make their positions known.
“He’s telling them, ‘Keep your powder dry.’ That means you don’t have to decide this — wait and see how it plays out. There’s some speculation that Kavanaugh may not last,” the lawmaker said. “They always vow to stay right until they don’t.”
A second Democratic senator said there’s widespread disbelief in the caucus that Kavanaugh is holding on.
“I just had a conversation with a colleague who said they couldn’t believe he hasn’t dropped out yet,” the second lawmaker said Monday evening. “There was a time he could have done it gracefully and could have protected the Supreme Court.”
The lawmaker said whether Kavanaugh keeps fighting “depends on what else the FBI finds and where the votes are” but observed that “public opinion is trending against him after his testimony Thursday.”
A Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released exclusively to The Hill on Monday found that 37 percent of registered voters want their senators to give Kavanaugh’s nomination the thumbs up, while 44 percent want them to vote down Trump’s nominee.
Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided in the survey conducted from Sept. 29 to 30, two days after Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to give testimony regarding her allegation that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted her at a party in 1982, when they were both in high school.
One previously undecided Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.), who is up for reelection in a state Trump won by 20 points, came out against Kavanaugh the day after the nominee’s angry rebuttal of Ford’s allegation.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), however, said he will force vulnerable Democrats to vote on the nominee.
“The time for endless delay and obstruction has come to a close,” he said on the floor Monday. “We’ll be voting this week.”
Kavanaugh vowed last week to stick it out, no matter what.
“I will not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process,” he declared in his opening statement to the Judiciary Committee.
A day after his testimony, Senate GOP leaders agreed to a request from Flake to delay a Senate floor vote on Kavanaugh to give the FBI time to investigate the allegations against him. That probe is expected to be completed later this week.
Heitkamp suggested at a campaign stop Friday in North Dakota that Trump and GOP leaders could defuse the situation by finding another nominee, who would have just enough time to be confirmed before Congress adjourns for the year.
“There’s a lot of lawyers in America who can sit on the court,” she said in Grand Forks, according to The Associated Press. “I think this idea that there’s only one person that can do this job, we all need to recalibrate.”
Senate aides see Heitkamp as less likely to support Kavanaugh than Manchin because she has a stronger record defending abortion rights. His confirmation could tip the court’s balance against Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that established abortion rights nationwide.
Heitkamp may also feel more pressure to believe Ford’s allegation, which has exposed a significant gender divide among the electorate.
A recent USA Today–Ipsos Public Affairs poll showed that 35 percent of women nationwide believe Ford’s accusation, while only 21 percent of men do. Women oppose Kavanaugh 43 percent to 23 percent, while men support him 40 percent to 36 percent.
