The U.S. military is no longer clearly superior to the threats that exist around the world, and it would struggle to win – or perhaps even lose – a war with China or Russia, according to a new report from a congressionally-formed commission.
The National Defense Strategy Commission findings released Wednesday paint a gloomy picture for the current state of the U.S. military that includes challenges from competitors in other countries vying for global power, new and creative threats posed by Iran and North Korea, the danger of extremist and terrorist groups and the global proliferation of advanced technology.
Political dysfunction and decisions made by both major parties," including the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration that began in 2013, "has significantly weakened its own defense," the report states.
The likelihood of a national security emergency is swiftly increasing, the report authors argue, and Washington is not moving quickly enough to make up for the shortcomings. The dangers would be particularly high were the military forced to fight on two or more fronts at the same time.
And the shortcomings persist, despite President Donald Trump's raising the military budget to $716 billion – even though the U.S. now spends four times more than China does on its military and 10 times more than Russia. The current efforts to prepare the Defense Department for the modern array of threats remain under-resourced, the report suggests.
"U.S. military superiority is no longer assured and the implications for American interests and American security are severe," the report states.
The commission was formed through Congress' 2017 defense
spending bill and was charged with reviewing the geopolitical priorities outlined in the Defense Department's 2018 National Defense Strategy along with other threats the military faces. It is led by Eric Edelman, who served as the Pentagon's No. 3 during the George W. Bush administration, and Gary Roughead, the Navy's top officer during Barack Obama's presidency. Other contributors are include top military, intelligence and congressional officials, including Christine Fox, the former acting deputy defense secretary, and Michael Morell, the former acting CIA director.
"We are concerned that the NDS too often rests on questionable assumptions and weak analysis, and it leaves unanswered critical questions regarding how the United States will meet the challenges of a more dangerous world," the report concludes. "We believe that the NDS points the Department of Defense and the country in the right direction, but it does not adequately explain how we should get there."
Russia and China "learned from what we've done. They've learned from our success. And while we've been off doing a different kind of warfare, they've been prepared for a kind of warfare at the
high end that we really haven't engaged in for a very long time," Edelman told Morell on the latter's podcast, "Intelligence Matters" and reported by The Washington Post. Leaders have lost sight of the complexity of modern threats, and the American public and Congress have not paid as close attention as they should, Edelman states.
The report comes at a time when other assessments affirm the Chinese government, for example, is actively working to undermine U.S. global influence.
