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I was explaining to Kristo that THIS was the Phillies year. He countered by siting that experts said that about last year. I didn't know that. More importantly, I didn't believe it myself.
In Baseball, there are two things that bring teams to the Playoffs and make them winners. One is Talent. The Yankees could be said to have a surplus of Talent. Not entirely true, but they have huge, huge names. A revolving door of All-stars and talent, which leads to the second thing: The Gel Factor.
Remember the 93 Phillies? Those Scrubs? They had it. The 98 (or was it 99) Yankees had it. It's when all the players come together, knowing their place and don't have any serious ego trips or problems. They mesh well and get the job done. I think younger teams like Kansas City and Minnesota have, in the past few years, shown signs of that gel factor.
Will the Yankees win it this year? I doubt it. This team reminds me of the Lakers in many aspects. I question the leadership (not Torre's management), and team morale. When hungry pitchers with ethic like Clemens and Pettitte exit, the team is left in the hands of Mussina, who has been consistently putting up innings, and will share time with Javier Vasquez and the injury prone Kevin Brown. If one of the starters goes down, then the Yankees become desperate. Their bullpen is not what it was, and Mariano Rivera doesn't come on until the 9th inning.
But who is their main competition? Baltimore has taken serious strides, but much of their game will depend on their pitching.
The other "true" contender within the division, the Bosox, still has not addressed the key weaknesses that killed it last year--more pitching.
So who else can challenge the Yanks in the AL? Oakland? Nope. Despite their trio of pitchers, they give up offensive threats as soon as they are developed. One wonders were Eric Chavez will be in one or two years. Oakland: America's Montreal Expos.
My Guess? Because spring training has yet to start, and this is insanely premature... I am going to go with the Royals. Hell, I could have said the Tigers, but they are damned to suckage. Royals might do something this year. Anaheim needs to rebound and figure out how to pitch again.
The NL is easy. The Braves have basically relinquished a hold on getting the division this year. The Mets? Please. The Marlins lost their hero to the Tigers, and again will prove to be a one-time deal. Expos have little to show for giving up talent. Phillies get the Division easy.
Even with potential injuries, the Phillies' lineup is stacked. 5 Pitchers who can win at least 12 games is a good sign. Should they go down, there are two pitchers in the minors waiting for a chance to get called up in Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd. These two can also (potentially) fill a relief spot (though I doubt the Phillies would rush Floyd for relief) if an injury arose. The pen is better then its been in decadeds, and Roberto Hernandez adds a potential backup closer to Billy Wagner, the guy who tosses 102+ mph. The reason the phillies missed last year's playoffs? Jose Mesa's Blown Save total surpassed the number of games the Phillies were behind the World Series Champions, Florida Marlins.
The lineup itself is the same as last years. Pat Burrell hopes to rebound from an atrocious .208 batting average with 21 homers and 60 some rbis. Should he produce, then the Phillies have a strong heart of the order that really can't be ignored.
Another former weakness, the bench, has been strengthened. With Lieberthal in his early 30s, and Todd Pratt getting up there, the Phillies acquired Aj Hinch for the minors, just in case something happens. Also back are Tomas Perez, who usually stays around .300 Ricky Ledee, who hit 15 homers in a limited number of plated appearances (provides power off the bench). Sean Wooten offers utility and power, and in case of injury, there is the excellent Jason Michaels, who, if I am right, hits over 300 the last two seasons. Good clutch player.
So who is their main competition? The NL Central has the strongest teams: three of them. Good thing only two of them can make the playoffs. St. Louis, Chicago, and Houston.
Houston has pitching, and offence. Similar to Philly, but I am not sure about depth.
St. Louis has talent, and lots of it, but injuries tend to plague the team, and their pitching is also injury-prone.
Chicago is the most consistent of these, not because of a load of talent, but because it retains so many players, and has a good, solid, healthy core.
Health is a factor for that division. Lose a Sammy Sosa, an Andy Pettitte, or a Albert Pujols, and you are fucked.
NL west? Who cares.
Synopsis: Phillies and Yanks in the World series. Underdogs vs. Demi-gods. Working Class vs Aristocrats.
Words not violence, break the silence. Maybe.
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Inglourious Basterd!!! 15000+ posts
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WHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAT?!?!?!?
First of all, lemme say this: I agree with your pick in the NL East. The Phillies have a good-to-great lineup and their pitching has improved noticeably. Although the always volatile Larry Bowa and his relationship with the players do not make them a total lock, they have the make-up to compete and maybe even win their division.
Having said that, regarding your look at the AL, lemme ask you: Are you fucking high, man? The Red Sox, with their retention of Mike Timlin (the postseason powerhouse), Alan Embree (another force in the postseason), Scott Williamson (who made up for a shaky regular season with some amazing innings in September/October), and Byung Hyung-Kim (who was effective in his starts and will be their #5 this year, haven't addressed their "weakness" in pitching? You mean Curt Schilling and Keith Foulke don't bolster an already-strong staff? Were you watching the same AL Championship Series that I was? Then let me recap: The pitching didn't lose Boston its World Series berth. Grady Little's managing with heart instead of mind did. The Red Sox are more than able to contend with ANY team, pitching vs pitching. And they lost one member of a lineup that broke records for offensive production, replaced him with a solid defender at the position, and added more bats off the bench. I'm not too worried about Boston's ability to beat the Yankees. As a matter of fact, A-Rod or no A-Rod, Boston's pitching, offense, defense, and team chemistry (a Yankee weakness) make them my pick for AL East champion. But I'm admittedly biased.
In the AL Central, I like the Royals too. They surprised a lot of people with their success, then improved significantly. Tony Pena is a good manager with a chance to become a great manager (experience will do that). Having said that, Minnesota has a tendency to be underrated, even though all they've done is win the division over the last two (maybe three) years. Keep an eye on them.
Too much parity in the AL West make the wild card come from the loser of the Red Sox/Yankee War. But in the West you have three great teams (A's Angels, and Mariners) and one with a good lineup and the ability to improve their pitching come July. I'll give the West to the A's, with their amazing starting staff, even though their offense (in my mind) is suspect.
The road to the NL Central (and, in my opinion, the World Series) goes through Chicago. The Cubs are primed to dominate for a long time to come. Improved offense, a good bullpen, and the best damn starting staff in baseball make them World Series favorites. That is, unless Houston's staff has something to say about it. A great team and an improved staff that was solid last year make them dangerous. Health of their players (Killer B's - Bagwell, Biggio, and Berkman) will define their fortunes.
NL West? Agreed, who cares. I'll pick San Diego 'cause everyone else goes with the Giants. But the NL West is comparable to the AL Central: One team will get a playoff berth and will lose in the first round to a better team.
To Recap:
AL East: Red Sox, Yankees (wild card)
AL Central: Royals (but watch them Twins)
AL West: A's (but this division's wide open)
NL East: Phillies
NL Central: Cubs, Astros (wild card)
NL West: Padres (whatever)
AL Championship: Red Sox/Yankees (The Sequel!!!)
NL Championship: Cubs/Astros or Phillies (too tough to call)
World Series: Red Sox/Cubs (as it should've been in 2003)
Champion: Red Sox and the baseball fans who watched the best postseason ever!!!
Uschi said:I won't rape you, I'll just fuck you 'till it hurts and then not stop and you'll cry. MisterJLA: RACKS so hard, he called Jim Rome "Chris Everett." In Him, all porn is possible. He is far above mentions in so-called "blogs." RACK him, lest ye be lost! "I can't even brush my teeth without gagging!" - Tommy Tantillo: Wank & Cry, heckpuppy, and general laughingstock ![[Linked Image from i6.photobucket.com]](http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y203/JoeMama13/RedSoxBanner05.png)
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Soy un perdedor said:
I was explaining to Kristo that THIS was the Phillies year. He countered by siting that experts said that about last year.
That's what I said!
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Will the Yankees win it this year? I doubt it. This team reminds me of the Lakers in many aspects. I question the leadership (not Torre's management), and team morale. When hungry pitchers with ethic like Clemens and Pettitte exit, the team is left in the hands of Mussina, who has been consistently putting up innings, and will share time with Javier Vasquez and the injury prone Kevin Brown. If one of the starters goes down, then the Yankees become desperate. Their bullpen is not what it was, and Mariano Rivera doesn't come on until the 9th inning.
Well, this Yankee team is younger than the Lakers(and age doesn't play as big a factor in baseball as it does in basketball). And, while Brown has been injured in the past, the only guy on the team that missed a lot of time last year was Derek Jeter. If he goes down, the Yankees would have a more than capable backup.
And, of course, there's always the possibility of another trade. I've heard Randy Johnson's name tossed around a good deal. That would be scary.
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So who else can challenge the Yanks in the AL? Oakland? Nope. Despite their trio of pitchers, they give up offensive threats as soon as they are developed. One wonders were Eric Chavez will be in one or two years. Oakland: America's Montreal Expos.
I think that's a slight exaggeration. Oakland will still win 80-90 games this year, maybe more, depending on how well the new batch of A's play. Billy Beane acquired two of the guys he coveted most(as detailed in Money Ball), Mark Kotsay and Bobby Kielty, and the A's best prospect, Bobby Crosby, now has the chance to play thanks to Tejada's departure.
Plus, the A's aren't just a 3 man rotation anymore. Phenom Rich Harden could make their big three a big four, and Mark Redman was made for that ballpark. That gives them top to bottom an awesome rotation, and Arthur Rhodes should bounce back to have a good year as the new closer.
Anaheim has to be the favorite at this point in the AL West, with all the moves they made in the offseason, but Oakland isn't all that far behind them still. Their pitching staff is just too damn good.
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My Guess? Because spring training has yet to start, and this is insanely premature... I am going to go with the Royals. Hell, I could have said the Tigers, but they are damned to suckage. Royals might do something this year. Anaheim needs to rebound and figure out how to pitch again.
The Royals? To win it all? Or are you just about about that division?
Hmm. They have a good assortment of young arms, though no clear #1 starter. Kevin Appier and Brian Anderson are crafty veterans. Runelvys Hernandez had a great start to last year but had a few nagging injuries that he never fully recovered from. Jeremy Affedlt and Jimmy Gobble are two guys I'll watch closely for possible breakout years. If Zach Grienke is brought up, they could be dangerous. Collectively, it's not a bad bunch, but there's nobody there that really leaps out.
Offensively, I think they overachieved last year without having Mike Sweeney in the lineup for most of the season. If healthy, Sweeney does give them a legit .300 hitter, and Beltran is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. Ken Harvey proved he could hit minor league pitching in his sleep, but had a fairly dissapointed rookie year. David DeJesus is this year's rookie of the year candidate for KC, if management finds a place for him in the outfield(and they should).
Defensively, they're a pretty sound group. Angel Berroa is a slick fielder at short, and Carlos Beltran might be the best defensive centerfielder in the AL. Torii Hunter gets all the highlights(and the praise), but Beltran is a lot more consistent, trying to make the right play, rather than the spectacular one.
I think the X-Factor for them will be Mike MacDougal. If he can harness his pure stuff and keep the walks down a bit, KC could make a run at the AL Central. If he throws wild, they could crumble quite easily.
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The NL is easy. The Braves have basically relinquished a hold on getting the division this year. The Mets? Please. The Marlins lost their hero to the Tigers, and again will prove to be a one-time deal. Expos have little to show for giving up talent. Phillies get the Division easy.
I wouldn't quite give up on the Marlins. They still have the best pitching staff in that division. What many seem to have forgotten is that Florida's best pitcher wasn't even in last year's World Series, A.J Burnett. Assuming he's healthy(and early reports indicate that he is), he makes the Marlins rotation very scary, with Josh Beckett, Brad Penny and Dontrelle Willis. I'm hoping they make Tim Spooneybarger closer, where he could thrive.
They did lose Pudge, who's unreplacable, and that's why I don't think they'll repeat, but they did get Hee Sop Choi in the Derek Lee trade. Other than that, they kept the parts they needed to(Mike Lowell, Luis Castillo, Juan Pierre), and now that Miguel Cabrera has a year under his belt, he's a clear candidate for breakout player.
Even with potential injuries, the Phillies' lineup is stacked. 5 Pitchers who can win at least 12 games is a good sign. Should they go down, there are two pitchers in the minors waiting for a chance to get called up in Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd. These two can also (potentially) fill a relief spot (though I doubt the Phillies would rush Floyd for relief) if an injury arose. The pen is better then its been in decadeds, and Roberto Hernandez adds a potential backup closer to Billy Wagner, the guy who tosses 102+ mph. The reason the phillies missed last year's playoffs? Jose Mesa's Blown Save total surpassed the number of games the Phillies were behind the World Series Champions, Florida Marlins.
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The lineup itself is the same as last years. Pat Burrell hopes to rebound from an atrocious .208 batting average with 21 homers and 60 some rbis. Should he produce, then the Phillies have a strong heart of the order that really can't be ignored.
Another former weakness, the bench, has been strengthened. With Lieberthal in his early 30s, and Todd Pratt getting up there, the Phillies acquired Aj Hinch for the minors, just in case something happens. Also back are Tomas Perez, who usually stays around .300 Ricky Ledee, who hit 15 homers in a limited number of plated appearances (provides power off the bench). Sean Wooten offers utility and power, and in case of injury, there is the excellent Jason Michaels, who, if I am right, hits over 300 the last two seasons. Good clutch player.
Philly is the clear favorite in that division. While the offense is very strong, and the pitching talent there, what I think puts them over the top is the improvements they made with the bullpen, losing the inconsistent Jose Mesa and acquiring the dominant Billy Wagner. The signing of Tim Worrell as the setup man may prove to be the most important of all.
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So who is their main competition? The NL Central has the strongest teams: three of them. Good thing only two of them can make the playoffs. St. Louis, Chicago, and Houston.
Houston has pitching, and offence. Similar to Philly, but I am not sure about depth.
Houston has better pitching, a still strong pen, and depending on Richard Hidalgo's status, one of the better offenses in the NL. Top prospects Chris Burke and John Buck give them a lot of depth in the infield, which leaves the only real weakness the outfield. Berkman and Biggio aren't great defensively(though Biggio is still learning the position), and Hidalgo may be traded. I think one of the bigger losses was Brian L. Hunter, who gave them speed at the corner spot. He was a "gamer".
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Health is a factor for that division. Lose a Sammy Sosa, an Andy Pettitte, or a Albert Pujols, and you are fucked.
Pettitte? No, they could lose Pettitte and still be fine. Berkman might be another story, but even then...
Take Thome's bat out of the Philly lineup last year and they don't even win 80 games.
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NL west? Who cares.
?
The Dodgers have pitching galore. L.A might be just what Jeff Weaver needs to reach his potential. A groundball pitcher like him should do well in Dodger Stadium. Throw in the Japanese connection, Nomo and Ishii, a ton of young arms close to the majors, like Edwin Jackson, Joel Hanrahan and Greg Miller, plus the old horse Wilson Alvarez(who quietly had a dominant second half last year), and you've got a scary staff.
And remember, if the Dodgers are leading in the 9th, it's over.
The Giants lost fan favorite Rich Aurillia, but they replaced Benitgo Santiago quite nicely with A.J Pierzynski, kept that quick-gloved infield, and their pitching staff looks good. Jason Schmidt established himself last year as a legit ace, and young studs Jerome Williams and Jesse Foppert showed flashes of brilliance last year. For them the key is keeping Robb Nen healthy.
Oh, right, and that Bonds guy is pretty good too.
The D-Backs losing Schill kind of takes them out of the division race, though they do still have the Big Unit(and acquired Big Sexy, Richie Sexson). I, personally, thought Brandon Webb should have won the NL Rookie of the Year last year, as he had better numbers than Willis.
The NL West isn't as powerful, sure, but they're not a total rollover.
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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Quote:
Joe Mama said:
The pitching didn't lose Boston its World Series berth. Grady Little's managing with heart instead of mind did.
I disagree. I would have made the same move Grady Little did, leaving in Pedro.
He's Pedro Martinez. Pound for pound the best pitcher in baseball, the unquestioned ace of that pitching staff, and the one guy on that team who we know wasn't intimidated by the Yankees. There's no pitcher I'd rather have in that position, and Mike Timlin agrees with me.
I feel sorry for Grady, for the abuse he's had to endure and will surely continue endure(since, if Bill Buckner is any indication, Red Sox fans don't forget or forgive easily). Naturally, nobody remembers that it was Grady Little who brought in Derek Lowe to close out game 5 against Oakland. That was a ballsy move, too, and it won the Sox that series.
It's easy to sit back, like Bill Simmons, Ben Affleck, and most of the so called Red Sox faithful, and blame it all on Grady Little, knowing full well that if the best pitcher in the league had simply not blown a 3 run lead, everyone would be calling him a genius.
It's just like Cubs fans and Steve Bartman. Always searching for a scapegoat, somebody new to tag as the perpetuator of "the curse", regardless of how absurd it is, denying the blatantly obvious fact that people don't lose games; teams do.
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The Red Sox are more than able to contend with ANY team, pitching vs pitching. And they lost one member of a lineup that broke records for offensive production, replaced him with a solid defender at the position, and added more bats off the bench. I'm not too worried about Boston's ability to beat the Yankees. As a matter of fact, A-Rod or no A-Rod, Boston's pitching, offense, defense, and team chemistry (a Yankee weakness) make them my pick for AL East champion. But I'm admittedly biased.
Schilling and Foulke are undeniably great moves, but Boston's pitching does still have some question marks. Timlin and Embree pitched very well in limited postseason action, but were extremely inconsistent all year, as were Derek Lowe, Ramiro Mendoza and Byung Hyun Kim. Those three also all have a history of mediocre performances against the New York Yankees(the last 3 years Lowe's ERA against them is 4.53, Kim and Mendozas' ERA are 4.00).
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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Quote:
Animalman said:
I disagree. I would have made the same move Grady Little did, leaving in Pedro.
He's Pedro Martinez. Pound for pound the best pitcher in baseball, the unquestioned ace of that pitching staff, and the one guy on that team who we know wasn't intimidated by the Yankees. There's no pitcher I'd rather have in that position, and Mike Timlin agrees with me.
I feel sorry for Grady, for the abuse he's had to endure and will surely continue endure(since, if Bill Buckner is any indication, Red Sox fans don't forget or forgive easily). Naturally, nobody remembers that it was Grady Little who brought in Derek Lowe to close out game 5 against Oakland. That was a ballsy move, too, and it won the Sox that series.
It's easy to sit back, like Bill Simmons, Ben Affleck, and most of the so called Red Sox faithful, and blame it all on Grady Little, knowing full well that if the best pitcher in the league had simply not blown a 3 run lead, everyone would be calling him a genius.
It's just like Cubs fans and Steve Bartman. Always searching for a scapegoat, somebody new to tag as the perpetuator of "the curse", regardless of how absurd it is, denying the blatantly obvious fact that people don't lose games; teams do.
Schilling and Foulke are undeniably great moves, but Boston's pitching does still have some question marks. Timlin and Embree pitched very well in limited postseason action, but were extremely inconsistent all year, as were Derek Lowe, Ramiro Mendoza and Byung Hyun Kim. Those three also all have a history of mediocre performances against the New York Yankees(the last 3 years Lowe's ERA against them is 4.53, Kim and Mendozas' ERA are 4.00).
Everone says they would've kept Pedro in. Thing is, Game 7 of the AL League Championship is vastly different than a regular season game. Pedro is an amazing pitcher, no doubt. And under normal circumstances I wouldn't want any other pitcher on that mound. But Pedro was showing signs of fatigue late in the fifth inning, was definitely tiring in the sixth, then cleared 110 pitches in the seventh. You pull your pitcher after 110, especially when, statistically, he's ineffective after 110 - 120 pitches (as the commentators noted with graphic during the game). You had two pitchers who were tearing up the postseason ready to go, then your closer. You manage with your head, not your heart, and pull your ace in that situation. He had done his job and Clemens was already out of the game. Grady didn't, and now he's a coach with the Cubs. I don't hate him, and I wouldn't ever treat him the way many other fans would, but I put responsibility for that loss on his shoulders. His decision, his loss.
The team was inconsistent earlier in the season when Grady and Theo were sticking to the "closer by committee" option. It didn't work, so they traded for the best closer available at the time (Kim). Then they traded for the best pitching available (Williamson, Sauerbeck[sp?], and Suppan) later on. Granted all three had their troubles later in the season. But by then, the rest of the staff had gelled and were able to pick up the slack. When Embree came back from his injury, he was solid and Timlin was consistent throughout the season. The less said about Mendoza, the better. As for Lowe, he was consistent on the road. At home, he was unbeatable.
This year, the team has maybe two spots on the bench and one or two on the pitching staff. The only question mark is who out of their Spring Training Invitees will get those spots. This is a solid team from spots 1 through 25. Barring injuries, there's no reason to expect them not to make the playoffs...
Uschi said:I won't rape you, I'll just fuck you 'till it hurts and then not stop and you'll cry. MisterJLA: RACKS so hard, he called Jim Rome "Chris Everett." In Him, all porn is possible. He is far above mentions in so-called "blogs." RACK him, lest ye be lost! "I can't even brush my teeth without gagging!" - Tommy Tantillo: Wank & Cry, heckpuppy, and general laughingstock
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Quote:
Joe Mama said:
Everone says they would've kept Pedro in. Thing is, Game 7 of the AL League Championship is vastly different than a regular season game. Pedro is an amazing pitcher, no doubt. And under normal circumstances I wouldn't want any other pitcher on that mound. But Pedro was showing signs of fatigue late in the fifth inning, was definitely tiring in the sixth, then cleared 110 pitches in the seventh. You pull your pitcher after 110, especially when, statistically, he's ineffective after 110 - 120 pitches (as the commentators noted with graphic during the game). You had two pitchers who were tearing up the postseason ready to go, then your closer. You manage with your head, not your heart, and pull your ace in that situation. He had done his job and Clemens was already out of the game. Grady didn't, and now he's a coach with the Cubs. I don't hate him, and I wouldn't ever treat him the way many other fans would, but I put responsibility for that loss on his shoulders. His decision, his loss.
You pull your pitcher out after 110-120 pitches in the regular season because you dont' want them to get injured and not be there for in the longrun.
This was game 7 of the NLCS.
In that situation, you go with your best pitcher, and I think that, fatigued or not, Pedro Martinez is still your best pitcher. Besides, it was just to get Posada, a switch hitter, who hit worse from the left last year than from the right. Had Pedro gotten him, Grady would have brought in Embree to get Giambi(as he ended up having to do anyway), since it was lefty on lefty.
Also, it's not like that decision directly resulted in a loss. The Red Sox had 3 innings to get a run and win the game, and they couldn't.
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The team was inconsistent earlier in the season when Grady and Theo were sticking to the "closer by committee" option. It didn't work, so they traded for the best closer available at the time (Kim).
....who ended up being used primarily as a starter, instead of a closer.
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Then they traded for the best pitching available (Williamson, Sauerbeck[sp?], and Suppan) later on. Granted all three had their troubles later in the season. But by then, the rest of the staff had gelled and were able to pick up the slack. When Embree came back from his injury, he was solid and Timlin was consistent throughout the season.
The moves didn't pay off, and Timlin started and finished poorly(posting a 4.42 ERA in April and a 6.00 ERA in September). He was good in between then, but hardly consistent the entire season.
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Barring injuries, there's no reason to expect them not to make the playoffs...
On paper, they look like a playoff team.
So did Philly last year. And the Mets two years ago.
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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My cousin came over from India back in 2000 or 2001, and my love of baseball has steadily been rubbing off on him. He doesn't understand that real fans root for the home team, or perhaps the underdog. No, he roots for the winning team. Annoys me. He is the Yankees, Lakers kind of person. Been teaching him about how tossing money around to players takes the competitive drive out of the game, and kills it. So you need to root for the underdog. He's coming around. He likes Philly, because I talk about my guys so much. Working class heroes.
But when the subtle reference here was made to it being over if the Dodgers had the lead in the 8th or 9th, I remember what he really likes. He loves closers. Gagne, Smoltz, and Wagner. Guys who simply dominate and piss off those batters. They are all great. What's interesting is how Wagner throws that 102 fastball from the left, along with a decent slider, and he is right handed. I'm right handed, and my coordination sucks shit.
Cobb, my bad. I IM Kristo so much, it's hard to remember who says what. And yes, I meant Royals for the division. Which would place them above the woeful Tigers, overachieving Twins, White Sox, and Indians. Really 82 to 85 wins will do it. They should be on the same page for that. The fact they were all overjoyed to get Juan Gonzalez made me think that something was up. Doesn't prove anything, but it makes them interesting to watch. They are my official "Team to watch for" this year. Not because they will win a World Series, or because I like them, but simply because they will catch people off guard.
Words not violence, break the silence. Maybe.
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Quote:
Soy un perdedor said:
What's interesting is how Wagner throws that 102 fastball from the left, along with a decent slider, and he is right handed. I'm right handed, and my coordination sucks shit.
Heh, what's craziest about him is his throwing motion. He keeps his arm tucked in, rather than extended, which you'd think would make it harder to throw well(it does for me at least). He must have some of strongest legs of any pitcher in baseball, because that's where he derives that power. I always laughed when I would look in the bullpen during Ranger games and I would see John Rocker lifting weights. Most guys just don't get that biceps have next to nothing to do with how hard and how well you can throw a baseball. It's all about the leg muscles. Just look at guys like Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.
With shorter guys it's especially important(which applies to the barely, if at all, 6 foot Billy Wagner). Bartolo Colon, Pedro, they're only 5'10 or 5'11 but thanks to those elephant legs they can turn it up to the mid-high 90's whenever they want.
Going back to Wagner, though, while he can hit 102 he tends to stay in the 97-99 range, touching 100 every now and then. He stopped trying to throw 103 every time and it's helped him become a truly dominant closer. He's also developed that second pitch, a slider, into a "plus" pitch as well, one of the better lefty sliders in baseball, and nasty considering the slider starts out like a fastball, then breaks. The combo make him pretty damn unhittable late in games.
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And yes, I meant Royals for the division. Which would place them above the woeful Tigers, overachieving Twins, White Sox, and Indians.
Oh, ok, you kinda threw me off a bit when you mentioned Anaheim in the same bit, though, since they aren't in that division.
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The fact they were all overjoyed to get Juan Gonzalez made me think that something was up.
Oy. Please, don't talk about that, it's too painful for me. Kansas City offered the Rangers a trade(which some say included Carlos Beltran, who they were trying to unload at that point, and who was and is exactly what we need) last year while for Juan when he was still raking the ball, and he turned it down. Then got hurt, and had no intention of returning here, meaning we got nothing for him. The fact that he ended up going to KC anyway is just the final dagger.
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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Quote:
Animalman said:
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Soy un perdedor said:
I was explaining to Kristo that THIS was the Phillies year. He countered by siting that experts said that about last year.
That's what I said!
True, but Soy has figured out that you can get higher ratings by dropping my name.
And that's terrible.
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Joined: Oct 2000
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Quote:
Animalman said:
Houston has better pitching, a still strong pen, and depending on Richard Hidalgo's status, one of the better offenses in the NL. Top prospects Chris Burke and John Buck give them a lot of depth in the infield, which leaves the only real weakness the outfield. Berkman and Biggio aren't great defensively(though Biggio is still learning the position), and Hidalgo may be traded. I think one of the bigger losses was Brian L. Hunter, who gave them speed at the corner spot. He was a "gamer".
Don't tell me you think Houston has better pitching this year than Chicago...
Let's see...Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt, Miller and Redding...
Against...Wood, Maddux, Prior, Clement and Zambrano...
Pettite vs Prior...Prior has the edge. He's seen the NL batters for the past two seasons. Pettitte hasn't...Still Close though...Edge: Prior.
Clemons vs Maddux...Like Pettitte, Clemons hasn't seen most of these batters before whereas Maddux has pitched in the NL his entire career. Plus, now that Clemons has to bat, he's gonna have to tone down on his inside pitches. First time up to bat after he buzzes Pujols or Bonds, he's gonna get his noggin rocked...Edge: Maddux.
Oswalt vs Wood...This has to be Woody's break-out year. He's a gamer, but hasn't really been able to return to his pre-surgery form since he came back in 2000. No more "slurve." Most of Wood's losses last year, and the year before, came from lack of offense. Don't know what it is, but I think he lost like six or seven games by one run last year. If he gets rocked though, it can be brutal...I remember Oswalt having a great year in '02, but happened last year? Did he get injured or something. I kind of remember something along those lines, but I'm not too clear on it...Edge: Wood (barely.)
Miller vs Clement...Clement had a shitty first half last year, following up on a spectacular '02. Luckily, he came out strong in the second half. If he does the same this year, he could really screw things up for the Cubbies. Miller is pretty good, but nothing spectacular. Solid pitcher can go either way on any given day. Can't comment too much more on him, mainly because I can't remember too much about him...:(...Edge: Push.
Redding vs Zambrano...Zambrano is a wild card. You never know what you will get from him. Fireballer with more potential than Kerry Wood, but also has the temprament to go with it. One of those guys that pumps his fist with every strike and points to the heavens with each out. Unfortunately, also breaks down during bad outings. Yells at himself on the mound and just spirals out of control. When he's on, he's unbelievable, but when he's off, it gets dangerous in the bleachers...sigh. I vaguely remember watching Redding pitch once or twice before last year and being impressed, but I can't remember anything from last year, so I gotta give him an incomplete. Stats look so-so (10-14, 3.68 ERA in 33 games, 65 BB vs 116 K's) but I know there'
s always more to the story than just that. Gotta give this one an incomplete, but I'd the edge on this one to Zambrano, if he could just be more consistant...
Then you get to the bullpen, and it's no contest. With Wagner gone, and Dotel moving to closer, that leaves you with no set-up guy at all. Plus, an unknown in Dotel. Probably the best set-up man in the NL the last few years, can he still do it as closer? Only time will tell. Will his bull-pen give him the chance? Don't know. Chi-town still has Farnsworth and Remlinger to set up, along with Latroy Hawkins now, but Joe Borowski as closer still gets me nervous. He proved himself last year, but something about him still doesn't ring true with me as a closer. Hopefully, with a re-tooled offense and the upgrade in the bullpen, it shouldn't be a problem. At least we ditch Dave Veres and Antonio Alfonseca...They always have Julio Cruz in triple AAA also, penciled in as the fifth starter for injuries or a set up guy in emergency cases, but look for him to get moved at mid-season for some help either at short or behind the plate. He's expendable right now...
Houston still has a pretty good offense, but Biggio and Bagwell are starting to get long in the tooth. Especially Bagwell. I think one of these days, you're gonna see him trotting down the line and body parts are just gonna start falling off. Probably needs to switch to the AL to prolong his career. Berkman is always a threat, but will he be able to return to the type off offense he had in '02? 42-128 compared to 25-93. They need more from him to stay competetive. At least they have Jeff Kent still...Cubs have questions too. Patterson's coming off knee surgery. Started to really break out last year just before going down. May have to start sacraficing speed for power to stay in. Big questions about Sammy. The knock in the head followed by the corked bat really screwed him up last year. Will he come back? Alou had a great year, but he's gettin' old. May need to look at a backup out there. Derrick Lee was a great addition at first, especially with Ramirez at 3rd. Should be able to help control some of infield errors. Grudzelanik (sp?) is past his prime, and will probably end up giving away to Todd Walker. He's a club house leader but still needs to produce on the field. Gonzalez is a decent defensive SS, which you need with Ramirez at third, but way too spotty at bat. Barrett behind the plate doesn't scare anybody, but should be able to call a good game. I think how he handles Wood, Clement and Zambrano is going to decide wether they need a back-up plan or not. Look for the Cubs to start trading away some of their young pitchers (Cruz, Smythe) before the trading deadline to shore up those last two spots if needed. They still need a strong lead-off guy too...
The central's such a screwed-up division. Chicago and Houston clogging the top with St Louis not too far behind (even though they really don't have a very good team, LaRussa still manages to find ways to win.) Then you've got Cincy, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. Three AA ball teams, who unfortunately always manage to gum up the works. Should be fun though...
Get the fuck out!
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Quote:
rufusTfirefly said:
Don't tell me you think Houston has better pitching this year than Chicago...
I was comparing Houston to Philly, not necessarily the rest of the NL Central.
I don't think Houston has a better rotation, but I definitely like their bullpen more than I do Chicago's, just in terms of dependability. The Astros' pen has been the workhorse of the entire club the last few years, thanks to Jimy Williams and his pathological fear of the complete game, whereas the Cubs' starters have been screwed time and time again by their bullpen. Prior would have won 20 games and Kerry 18 on most clubs. That being said, the Cubs have a fine pen, too, now, thanks to some great offseason acquisitions(and offseason ditchings), and overall, I think the superior pitching staff. Collectively.
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Let's see...Pettitte, Clemens, Oswalt, Miller and Redding...
I'd actually be kind of surprised if Redding gets the nod as the 5th starter. I think he'll probably end up as a long relief guy. Brandon Duckworth, who came over from Philly in the Wagner trade, was touted as a big time pitching prospect when he reached the majors, but hasn't really broken out yet. He might land that last spot, and Jeriome Robertson(who led all rookies in wins last year) should be in contention as well, as another lefty to compliment Pettitte.
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I remember Oswalt having a great year in '02, but happened last year? Did he get injured or something. I kind of remember something along those lines, but I'm not too clear on it...
Yeah, he had a groin injury that kept him out for a few weeks during midseason, and reaggrivated it late in the year.
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Miller vs Clement...Clement had a shitty first half last year, following up on a spectacular '02. Luckily, he came out strong in the second half. If he does the same this year, he could really screw things up for the Cubbies. Miller is pretty good, but nothing spectacular. Solid pitcher can go either way on any given day. Can't comment too much more on him, mainly because I can't remember too much about him...:(...Edge: Push.
Wade Miller is probably one of the most underrated pitchers out there. He's a horse and I have little doubt that he's better than Clement. Despite his terrible start to the year, Miller was dominant in the second half, and I'd be surprised if he didn't return to his usual form. Afterall, this is a guy that, coming into last season, had one of the best winning percentages of any pitcher in the NL the last 2 years, with a 31-12 record, and a 3.35 ERA(in possibly the biggest hitters park in the NL, outside of Coors Field).
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Then you get to the bullpen, and it's no contest. With Wagner gone, and Dotel moving to closer, that leaves you with no set-up guy at all. Plus, an unknown in Dotel. Probably the best set-up man in the NL the last few years, can he still do it as closer?
Actually, it leaves them with Brad Lidge as the set up guy, who was the 7th inning guy last year and was downright dominant through most of the year. A late slump, but he still posted a 3.60 ERA in his first full season, and struck out 97 in 85 innings. He'll slide right into Dotel's position, and thanks to Jimy Williams' nauseatingly regimental bullpen use last year(honestly, it was like a metronome: nearly every time Houston went into the 7th with a lead you'd see Lidge-Dotel-Wagner), he should be fine.
As for Dotel himself, I see no reason to belief he won't dominate hitters now as he always has. Initially he was the closer, since he was brought up while Wagner was still recovering from that freak accident several years ago(line drive that hit him in the face). Plus, Jimy would have him finish games regularly when it wasn't a save situation the last few years, so he knows how to pitch in the 9th. He's very relaxed on the mound, so I don't see him as someone that could become unwound ala Armando Benitez.
I'm a little concerned about their middle relief guys, but Kirk Saarloos and Carlos Hernandez are both young, promising guys that would probably be starting on other teams. Depending on who gets the 5th rotation spot, Tim Redding or Brandon Duckworth provide another good mid-relief guy. They're a bit more proven than the Cubs middle relief guys, who are mostly young and inexperienced.
Rounding out the pen, Dan Miceli and Mike Gallo came out of nowhere last year to have excellent seasons. Whether or not they're the real deal remains to be seen, but the same can be said for Joe Borowski.
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Chi-town still has Farnsworth and Remlinger to set up, along with Latroy Hawkins now, but Joe Borowski as closer still gets me nervous.
Hawkins will have to adjust to the NL, but I think he should do so nicely since it's a lot more of a fastball-friendly league than the AL, where pitchers have to throw more offspeed stuff to combat the stocked power lineups.
While you certainly can't say Remlinger's numbers last year were "bad", he was a bit of a dissapointment to me, considering how dominant he was with the Braves for so long. Maybe it was adjusting to Wrigley Field, but giving up 11 homers, as opposed to 3 last year, in nearly the same number of innings is a warning sign to me. Plus his walk numbers rose significantly, and obviously his ERA was higher.
Farnsworth finally got it together last year, though I still wonder if he won't self destruct again.
Borowski I simply don't trust. I don't know why, but I just don't see him as a mainstay closer. He could prove me wrong again this year. If it came down to Dotel vs. Borowski, I'd take Dotel any day of the week.
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They always have Julio Cruz in triple AAA also, penciled in as the fifth starter for injuries or a set up guy in emergency cases, but look for him to get moved at mid-season for some help either at short or behind the plate. He's expendable right now...
I think you mean Juan Cruz, but yes, I do expect him to be traded as well. With Angel Guzman fast closing in on the majors, he's long since lost his title as the Cubs premiere pitching prospect.
Quote:
Houston still has a pretty good offense, but Biggio and Bagwell are starting to get long in the tooth. Especially Bagwell. I think one of these days, you're gonna see him trotting down the line and body parts are just gonna start falling off. Probably needs to switch to the AL to prolong his career.
Bagwell has said that he plans to finish out his contract with Houston then retire, so I wouldn't expect him to make a switch just to pad his stats. Even with a shoulder injury that's nagged him the last few years, he's still good for 30+ homers and 100 RBI, and Biggio is still going to hit plenty of doubles and score 100+ runs.
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Berkman is always a threat, but will he be able to return to the type off offense he had in '02? 42-128 compared to 25-93. They need more from him to stay competetive.
At first glance, Berkman's year looks like a major dissapointment, but to use the Billy Beane style of analysis he was still highly productive. Despite hitting .288 he still drew 107 walks and posted a .927 OPS(10th in the NL). He also scored 110 runs, which is more than he scored last year, and just as many as he did in '01, and in fewer games. That's about as good a down year as you'll find.
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At least they have Jeff Kent still...
Don't forget Richard Hidalgo, who returned to form last year, and Morgan Ensberg, who finally had his breakout season.
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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I, for one, have conceded the season to the Yankees. Once basketball is over I will be looking forward to football.
"You kind of get tired giving the other team credit. At some point you've got to look in the mirror and say 'I sucked.'"
Alex Rodriguez, after the NY Yankees were eliminated from the 2006 ALDS by the Detroit Tigers.
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The regular season, maybe, but why the post-season, too?
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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Cashman and Torre should be fired on the spot if the Yankees don't win it all. George isn't paying all this for them to just win the pennant.
I'm serious. Pitching woes be damned. The intent is that this team is supposed to hoist the hardware at the end of October.
Jim
We all wear a green carnation.
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It actually wouldn't surprise me if the Yankees are the Wild Card and not the division winner. Not because they're overated, but I think they might get bored with the season pretty quick and some bickering could take over the team as well. But come playoff time Torre will make the team pull it together. I expect the Lakers to be the same. They're 17-6 with the big 4 playing together. I still say they're the team to beat and no one wants to face them in the playoffs.
"You kind of get tired giving the other team credit. At some point you've got to look in the mirror and say 'I sucked.'"
Alex Rodriguez, after the NY Yankees were eliminated from the 2006 ALDS by the Detroit Tigers.
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Joined: Oct 2001
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Quote:
Animalman said:
Quote:
rufusTfirefly said:
They always have Julio Cruz in triple AAA also, penciled in as the fifth starter for injuries or a set up guy in emergency cases, but look for him to get moved at mid-season for some help either at short or behind the plate. He's expendable right now...
I think you mean Juan Cruz, but yes, I do expect him to be traded as well. With Angel Guzman fast closing in on the majors, he's long since lost his title as the Cubs premiere pitching prospect.
...and today he was traded, though, curiously, for another minor league pitcher(former Ranger farmhand Andy Pratt), and a utility infielder.
Another steal for Atlanta.
MisterJLA is RACKing awesome.
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Educator to comprehension impaired (JLA, that is you) 50000+ posts
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Quote:
Jim Jackson said:
Cashman and Torre should be fired on the spot if the Yankees don't win it all. George isn't paying all this for them to just win the pennant.
I'm serious. Pitching woes be damned. The intent is that this team is supposed to hoist the hardware at the end of October.
Jim
by that line of reasoning youd have to fire the entire roster, i mean torre and cashman are no more at fault for injuries or lack of injuries on another team than anyone else.....so if we are gunna fire people arbitrarily we should fire the whole lot!
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Inglourious Basterd!!! 15000+ posts
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I agree! Fire all them Yankees!!! Git 'em all outta baseball!!!
Uschi said:I won't rape you, I'll just fuck you 'till it hurts and then not stop and you'll cry. MisterJLA: RACKS so hard, he called Jim Rome "Chris Everett." In Him, all porn is possible. He is far above mentions in so-called "blogs." RACK him, lest ye be lost! "I can't even brush my teeth without gagging!" - Tommy Tantillo: Wank & Cry, heckpuppy, and general laughingstock
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Quote:
Soy un perdedor said:
I was explaining to Kristo that THIS was the Phillies year. He countered by siting that experts said that about last year. I didn't know that. More importantly, I didn't believe it myself.
In Baseball, there are two things that bring teams to the Playoffs and make them winners. One is Talent. The Yankees could be said to have a surplus of Talent. Not entirely true, but they have huge, huge names. A revolving door of All-stars and talent, which leads to the second thing: The Gel Factor.
Remember the 93 Phillies? Those Scrubs? They had it. The 98 (or was it 99) Yankees had it. It's when all the players come together, knowing their place and don't have any serious ego trips or problems. They mesh well and get the job done. I think younger teams like Kansas City and Minnesota have, in the past few years, shown signs of that gel factor.
Will the Yankees win it this year? I doubt it. This team reminds me of the Lakers in many aspects. I question the leadership (not Torre's management), and team morale. When hungry pitchers with ethic like Clemens and Pettitte exit, the team is left in the hands of Mussina, who has been consistently putting up innings, and will share time with Javier Vasquez and the injury prone Kevin Brown. If one of the starters goes down, then the Yankees become desperate. Their bullpen is not what it was, and Mariano Rivera doesn't come on until the 9th inning.
But who is their main competition? Baltimore has taken serious strides, but much of their game will depend on their pitching.
The other "true" contender within the division, the Bosox, still has not addressed the key weaknesses that killed it last year--more pitching.
So who else can challenge the Yanks in the AL? Oakland? Nope. Despite their trio of pitchers, they give up offensive threats as soon as they are developed. One wonders were Eric Chavez will be in one or two years. Oakland: America's Montreal Expos.
My Guess? Because spring training has yet to start, and this is insanely premature... I am going to go with the Royals. Hell, I could have said the Tigers, but they are damned to suckage. Royals might do something this year. Anaheim needs to rebound and figure out how to pitch again.
The NL is easy. The Braves have basically relinquished a hold on getting the division this year. The Mets? Please. The Marlins lost their hero to the Tigers, and again will prove to be a one-time deal. Expos have little to show for giving up talent. Phillies get the Division easy.
Even with potential injuries, the Phillies' lineup is stacked. 5 Pitchers who can win at least 12 games is a good sign. Should they go down, there are two pitchers in the minors waiting for a chance to get called up in Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd. These two can also (potentially) fill a relief spot (though I doubt the Phillies would rush Floyd for relief) if an injury arose. The pen is better then its been in decadeds, and Roberto Hernandez adds a potential backup closer to Billy Wagner, the guy who tosses 102+ mph. The reason the phillies missed last year's playoffs? Jose Mesa's Blown Save total surpassed the number of games the Phillies were behind the World Series Champions, Florida Marlins.
The lineup itself is the same as last years. Pat Burrell hopes to rebound from an atrocious .208 batting average with 21 homers and 60 some rbis. Should he produce, then the Phillies have a strong heart of the order that really can't be ignored.
Another former weakness, the bench, has been strengthened. With Lieberthal in his early 30s, and Todd Pratt getting up there, the Phillies acquired Aj Hinch for the minors, just in case something happens. Also back are Tomas Perez, who usually stays around .300 Ricky Ledee, who hit 15 homers in a limited number of plated appearances (provides power off the bench). Sean Wooten offers utility and power, and in case of injury, there is the excellent Jason Michaels, who, if I am right, hits over 300 the last two seasons. Good clutch player.
So who is their main competition? The NL Central has the strongest teams: three of them. Good thing only two of them can make the playoffs. St. Louis, Chicago, and Houston.
Houston has pitching, and offence. Similar to Philly, but I am not sure about depth.
St. Louis has talent, and lots of it, but injuries tend to plague the team, and their pitching is also injury-prone.
Chicago is the most consistent of these, not because of a load of talent, but because it retains so many players, and has a good, solid, healthy core.
Health is a factor for that division. Lose a Sammy Sosa, an Andy Pettitte, or a Albert Pujols, and you are fucked.
NL west? Who cares.
Synopsis: Phillies and Yanks in the World series. Underdogs vs. Demi-gods. Working Class vs Aristocrats.
White Sox in four.
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"Are you eating it...or is it eating you?" [center] [/center] [center] [/center]
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