We just installed a conservative government in my home state which is going to allow uranium mining, so I'm ok.

Don't know about the rest of you guys though.

My take on how this happened:

1. there was too much cash around, and banks didn't know what to do with it.

2. banks invested it in subprime markets. That is, they gave money to people who couldn't afford to repay it, a fundamental error in banking models. This is why its called "subprime".

3. surprise! The people who borrowed the money didn't repay the loans. Suddenly there was no money about at all. One of my collagues heads up a few boards, including a really big one. he said at one stage total global liquidity was around $5b. That may sound like a lot to us mere mortals, but from the perspective of major M&A activity wouldn't be enough to fund one big takeover.

4. Banks like Lehmans and Merrill Lynch need cash to work. No cashee, no workee.

5. Pop tinkle! Banks go bust.

6. Investors see two vehicles for making money go pop tinkle, get nervous and pull cash out of the market. Market spirals.

7. I can't see a depression, but I do see a 5-8 year cycle to this. Dot com bubble, 8 years ago. 1992 blahs, 8 years before that. 1987 crash was 5 years before that.


Pimping my site, again.

http://www.worldcomicbookreview.com