from what i understand, html5 wont replace flash, just make it easier for the browser to access. right now, when you are watching a flash animation or something on a web page, you're secretly running two programs: the web browser and a flash plugin. the browsers get by that by asking you to install a plugin the first time you need it.
html5 hopes to bridge that gap, placing the more standard plugins directly in the web tech, itself. great idea, but lots of issues - like, what happens when something newer or cooler than flash is introduced a few months later that doesn't fit into html5's offerings? who is told to fuck off? who??
it's also something still very theoretical. even if it launched today, it'd take years to become a standard. websites now still have to be designed with IE6 users in mind, and we're only just beginning to shy away from 800x600 monitors.
