I actually think Obama is in even worse shape than the poll numbers indicate. This is in a crowded Republican primary race where Republicans are still divided in their fluctuating whims of who they think might be the best candidate.
But once the primary ends and Republicans/Independents are able to coalesce around one candidate, I think whoever the Republican is will surpass Obama in popularity.
And even Democrat pundits and pollsters have acknowledged that the "undecided" vote overwhelmingly goes for the challenger and not the incumbent consistently in elections.
I like Romney, but there are many other very capable Republicans I'd be happy with too. As would most of the nation at this point. Two guys who I think are as good as any of the front-runners are Gary Johnson and John Huntsman. But as we know from the 2008 campaign... it ain't near over yet.