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Tight Race for a Divided Nation For a politically polarized nation, a campaign pitting President Bush against Sen. John F. Kerry presents the starkest of choices -- and almost certainly a close election.
The policy lines are clearly drawn, with sharp disagreements already expressed on the conduct of war and diplomacy, the management of the economy and such volatile social issues as abortion, gay rights, guns and the death penalty.
On the personal level, moreover, the onetime Texas oilman and the diplomat's son from Massachusetts have little liking for what the other represents.
"John Kerry is what George Bush worked very hard not to be -- a Northeast elitist," said Vin Weber, the former representative from Minnesota with close ties to the White House. "Bush has family roots in New England, but he rejected that for himself, and now he's going to be running against someone who represents everything he wanted to avoid."
For his part, Kerry has acknowledged his "privileged upbringing." But he is quick to tell audiences that, unlike Bush, he has devoted his energies in the Senate to fighting for the interests of those who were born without such advantages.
Personalities aside, the contrast in their politics and governing philosophies guarantees this will be a riveting contest. Because the country remains almost balanced between the parties and because neither man shed blood in securing the nomination, they enter the general election on unexpectedly even terms.
Current polls give Kerry a minuscule lead. Sig Rogich, a veteran Republican consultant from Nevada, said he is unconcerned because "you often see the incumbent running behind at this point in the cycle. The Democrats have been beating him over the head for months, and he is just now starting his campaign."
That may be true, but veteran Republicans in such battleground states as Pennsylvania, Ohio and Illinois commented last night that Bush has seemed off his game for the past two months, unusually defensive and unpersuasive. Surveying the president's problems with Iraq, the economy and the budget, one Republican, speaking privately, said, "I think he's feeling overwhelmed."
Democrats say they harbor no such illusions. "I don't believe for a minute he's down 10 points," said one Democrat who has been involved in presidential campaigns since the mid-1960s. "And even if he were, they can strengthen him; they're tough and smart."
But he observed -- as did Paula Woolf, a longtime adviser to top Illinois Republicans -- the ferocity and seeming unanimity of Democratic hostility toward Bush.
"The country is so divided," Woolf said. "People on each side think the other guy is the devil incarnate."
That intensity -- in part a carryover of the bitter 2000 contest, which extended for weeks after Election Day and ended with the Supreme Court ending the vote-counting in Florida -- presages an equally close struggle in November.
States such as Ohio, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Oregon, Wisconsin and Iowa -- and, of course, Florida -- will be saturated with ads and swamped with campaign visits. Bush, sitting on a record pile of campaign cash, is starting his ad blitz on Thursday. He and Vice President Cheney were on television yesterday even as the Democrats wound up their primary battles.
Rhodes Cook, who publishes a Washington newsletter analyzing political trends, said some of the strengths and weaknesses of Kerry and Bush could be seen in the primary results.
Historically, the absence of any significant primary challenge has been a key indicator of a president's healthy prospects for winning a second term. But Cook pointed out that, prior to last night, Bush's "show your support" vote was smaller than President Ronald Reagan's 1984 vote in the New Hampshire and Wisconsin primaries -- two swing states. In New Hampshire 20 years ago, about 5,000 Democratic primary voters wrote in Reagan's name; this year, only 257 showed crossover support for Bush.
As for Kerry, Cook commented on the breadth of his support. "He has done well with all the constituencies you want to win -- urban, suburban, rural, white and black. Even though he won Wisconsin narrowly, he won 59 of 72 counties."
But, he added, "Up until yesterday, Kerry had won only 41 percent of the Democratic votes. Even as the odds-on favorite for nomination, the majority of Democrats have gone elsewhere."
Beyond these factors, the strengths and vulnerabilities of both Kerry and Bush are well-defined in the minds of veteran observers.
For Bush, they stem directly from his conduct of the presidency. "This will basically be a referendum on his record," Pennsylvania consultant Rick Robb said. That means the status of the war on terrorism, the fate of Osama bin Laden, the uneasy situation in Iraq, and especially the question of whether the economic recovery begins to produce real job growth all will be crucial for Bush.
Some Democrats see the beginning of a credibility problem for the president. "You're beginning to hear people say that he has misled people," one Washington Democratic lobbyist said. "The weapons of mass destruction weren't there; the budget surplus disappeared; a lot of seniors have doubts about the Medicare drug benefits. It could add up."
On the GOP side, the belief is strong that Kerry's credibility, which was barely challenged in the primaries, offers many opportunities for attack.
"He had a picture-perfect nominating process," Weber said. "Howard Dean was the perfect foil for him. He has presidential gravitas and he will have a united and energized party behind him. But on large issues, he accommodated himself to the Dean surge to the left, and now he finds himself with positions that will be difficult to explain."
Anita Dunn, a Democratic consultant who worked in past Kerry campaigns, said that Kerry, like Bush, has at times been "criticized for his campaign skills. But they have outlasted all the competition." But noting that Republicans are zeroing in on Kerry's alleged flip-flops, she said, "Sometimes it is better not to have such a long public record." Three areas are shaping up as crucial to the election results -- war, the economy and social issues, in the view of many political operatives and consultants.
On national security, which Bush wants to make the central question by reminding people "we are at war," Kerry has positioned himself to contest what has been an overwhelming Republican advantage. He cites his Vietnam combat experience and his years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Last week, in a major speech, he accused Bush of doing too little to strengthen the military and build up homeland defense.
But Republicans point to contradictions in his record -- his votes against major weapons systems and his opposition to the Persian Gulf War -- and say he has been on all sides of security questions.
On the economy, Kerry has led a concerted Democratic attack on Bush's record, clearly seeing the tax cuts for the wealthy and the loss of jobs as major political liabilities for the president. Tim Hibbits, an independent pollster in Oregon, said he is picking up a sense from the voters that they think Bush "doesn't get what my problems are," the same sense of alienation that cost his father, President George H.W. Bush, reelection in 1992.
Rogich and other Republicans point to statistics showing the economy is moving upward, and say they are confident the trend will restore Bush's credibility on that issue.
Finally, there are the social issues, on which Kerry, like most Massachusetts politicians, has a markedly liberal record. An avowed opponent of the death penalty, he opposes gay marriage but supports civil unions, and backs abortion rights and restrictions on guns.
Democrats point out that as an athlete, a sportsman and a veteran, Kerry does not fit the stereotype of an effete liberal. But Dunn acknowledges, "Massachusetts is different. It's not like other states."
How voters will sort this mix of qualities, no one can say. But Dunn and most Republicans agree on one point: These are two battle-tested politicians, with experienced and cohesive organizations behind them. And the country seems more than ready for a knock-down, drag-out fight.
