I was explaining to Kristo that THIS was the Phillies year. He countered by siting that experts said that about last year. I didn't know that. More importantly, I didn't believe it myself.
In Baseball, there are two things that bring teams to the Playoffs and make them winners. One is Talent. The Yankees could be said to have a surplus of Talent. Not entirely true, but they have huge, huge names. A revolving door of All-stars and talent, which leads to the second thing: The Gel Factor.
Remember the 93 Phillies? Those Scrubs? They had it. The 98 (or was it 99) Yankees had it. It's when all the players come together, knowing their place and don't have any serious ego trips or problems. They mesh well and get the job done. I think younger teams like Kansas City and Minnesota have, in the past few years, shown signs of that gel factor.
Will the Yankees win it this year? I doubt it. This team reminds me of the Lakers in many aspects. I question the leadership (not Torre's management), and team morale. When hungry pitchers with ethic like Clemens and Pettitte exit, the team is left in the hands of Mussina, who has been consistently putting up innings, and will share time with Javier Vasquez and the injury prone Kevin Brown. If one of the starters goes down, then the Yankees become desperate. Their bullpen is not what it was, and Mariano Rivera doesn't come on until the 9th inning.
But who is their main competition? Baltimore has taken serious strides, but much of their game will depend on their pitching.
The other "true" contender within the division, the Bosox, still has not addressed the key weaknesses that killed it last year--more pitching.
So who else can challenge the Yanks in the AL? Oakland? Nope. Despite their trio of pitchers, they give up offensive threats as soon as they are developed. One wonders were Eric Chavez will be in one or two years. Oakland: America's Montreal Expos.
My Guess? Because spring training has yet to start, and this is insanely premature... I am going to go with the Royals. Hell, I could have said the Tigers, but they are damned to suckage. Royals might do something this year. Anaheim needs to rebound and figure out how to pitch again.
The NL is easy. The Braves have basically relinquished a hold on getting the division this year. The Mets? Please. The Marlins lost their hero to the Tigers, and again will prove to be a one-time deal. Expos have little to show for giving up talent. Phillies get the Division easy.
Even with potential injuries, the Phillies' lineup is stacked. 5 Pitchers who can win at least 12 games is a good sign. Should they go down, there are two pitchers in the minors waiting for a chance to get called up in Ryan Madson and Gavin Floyd. These two can also (potentially) fill a relief spot (though I doubt the Phillies would rush Floyd for relief) if an injury arose. The pen is better then its been in decadeds, and Roberto Hernandez adds a potential backup closer to Billy Wagner, the guy who tosses 102+ mph. The reason the phillies missed last year's playoffs? Jose Mesa's Blown Save total surpassed the number of games the Phillies were behind the World Series Champions, Florida Marlins.
The lineup itself is the same as last years. Pat Burrell hopes to rebound from an atrocious .208 batting average with 21 homers and 60 some rbis. Should he produce, then the Phillies have a strong heart of the order that really can't be ignored.
Another former weakness, the bench, has been strengthened. With Lieberthal in his early 30s, and Todd Pratt getting up there, the Phillies acquired Aj Hinch for the minors, just in case something happens. Also back are Tomas Perez, who usually stays around .300 Ricky Ledee, who hit 15 homers in a limited number of plated appearances (provides power off the bench). Sean Wooten offers utility and power, and in case of injury, there is the excellent Jason Michaels, who, if I am right, hits over 300 the last two seasons. Good clutch player.
So who is their main competition? The NL Central has the strongest teams: three of them. Good thing only two of them can make the playoffs. St. Louis, Chicago, and Houston.
Houston has pitching, and offence. Similar to Philly, but I am not sure about depth.
St. Louis has talent, and lots of it, but injuries tend to plague the team, and their pitching is also injury-prone.
Chicago is the most consistent of these, not because of a load of talent, but because it retains so many players, and has a good, solid, healthy core.
Health is a factor for that division. Lose a Sammy Sosa, an Andy Pettitte, or a Albert Pujols, and you are fucked.
NL west? Who cares.
Synopsis: Phillies and Yanks in the World series. Underdogs vs. Demi-gods. Working Class vs Aristocrats.
