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THE NATION
U.S. Payroll Growth Is Weak in July

The gain of 32,000 jobs is much lower than expected, raising concerns about the economy's strength. The jobless rate dips to 5.5%.

By James F. Peltz, Times Staff Writer

U.S. employers added only 32,000 jobs in July, the government reported Friday, a weak showing that surprised Wall Street, heightened fears of an economic slowdown and may have dealt a setback to President Bush's reelection campaign.

The performance fell far short of forecasts by economists, who had anticipated the creation of up to 250,000 net new jobs last month.

The news prompted investors to drive stock prices sharply lower, with the Dow Jones industrial average tumbling 147.70 points, or 1.5%, to 9,815.33 — its lowest level of the year.

Since Bush took office in early 2001, the nation's economy has had a net loss of 1.1 million jobs. The latest report greatly increased the likelihood that he would be the first president since Herbert Hoover to see jobs decline during his term.



Some analysts suggested that the president's plan to stimulate the economy through tax cuts may have run its course — with little behind it to keep the momentum going.

"This raises some serious questions about how strong the economy is now that the stimulus from the tax cuts has abated," said Barry Bosworth, a former Carter administration official and now a senior economist at the Brookings Institution, a nonpartisan group in Washington.

Robert MacIntosh, chief economist at the investment firm Eaton Vance Corp., said the July results had to disappoint Bush because they were the last monthly job figures before the Republican National Convention.

"It doesn't help Bush, because pretty soon voters are going to lock in their thoughts about the economy and how it's doing," he said. "But it's still growth. It's not like we're in a recession."

The growth in jobs — that is, the non-farm payroll employment reported by employers — has now declined for four consecutive months. In addition, the Labor Department on Friday reduced previously reported payroll numbers for June and May by more than 50,000 jobs combined.

The areas of job loss last month indicate that consumers might be paring their spending in the face of higher interest rates and gasoline prices.

In July, the retail industry lost 19,100 jobs, to 15 million, and the hotel business lost 4,600 jobs, to 1.76 million. The finance and insurance sector lost 25,200 jobs, to 5.93 million, with the mortgage, securities and insurance fields all showing declines.

Some manufacturing industries, such as machinery, computers and furniture, showed modest gains in employment. Job growth also occurred in home-healthcare services, outpatient-care centers, hospitals and child day-care services.

As he campaigns these days, President Bush asserts that the nation's economy has "turned the corner." But Friday's disappointing employment report — all but assuring that his record on election day will show a net loss of jobs during his time in office — is likely to make Bush's sales pitch all the more difficult.

The weak jobs numbers present a challenge to his claim that his "well-timed" tax cuts have fostered a steady recovery, several political analysts and economists said. Some economists had expected a gain of as many as 250,000 jobs for July, but the Labor Department said the economy created only 32,000.

While employers have added 1.2 million payroll jobs this year, they have shed a net 1.1 million jobs since Bush became president in January 2001.

The Bush campaign had been hoping that job growth would show clearer strength, said Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Atlanta's Emory University, so that the president could "make a more credible case that things were getting better and that voters should give [the administration] more time for Bush's policies to work."

"But now it looks like it's less likely the economy will be a plus for Bush going into the election."

The payroll gain announced Friday "is a terrible number for Bush," said Greg Valliere, chief strategist for Schwab Washington Research Group. He said that Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, Bush's Democratic challenger, "can say the economy is sputtering, and I think he can say it with some justification…. It's pretty tough to spin this number positively."

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