If his fastball really does clock in at 88 (and I thought it was around 92-94), then he is forced to rely on pitches with a lot of movement. It works the first couple of times batters face a guy, when once you realize that a guy can only use pitches with movement, then you know the only way he can win is through deception. If Zito throws those pitches for strikes, they can be tagged. The 88 mph fastball is a changeup for most pitchers.
When you have that kind of velocity, there are two extremes:
Greg Maddux, who mastered location and deception. The ultimate control pitcher who knew how to use his stuff.
The opposite is Chad Ogea. Low velocity, who was forced to work with changeups, curves, and stuff that really didn't fool anyone. If he threw strikes, he had to hope the catcher caught it, or else he had to rely on his defense. He gave up his share of homers his last few seasons in the majors.
Zito has that in-your-face mentality. Last year, his heater was going 92, and he was using that curve to scare guys. Rely on a pitch too much, and players adjust. Simple. Only so much can be given to coaches and catchers. A lot is due, and Zito has good mechanics, but I think some batters might have wised up. "Hey, maybe if I lay off the 12-6. it will go low, and be a strike." Force a man to throw strikes, and you take away a lot of his leverage. Then, he has to throw that no-so-overpowering fastball or changeup.
