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wannabuyamonkey said:
If Rudy's an East Cost only phenomenon, then why are we discussing him so viehmently? I think more people on the streets in the West coast know who Rudy is than know who thier own representitives are in the house.



Everyone in my town knows that Nancy Pelosi is our House Rep.

Interpreting statistics involves art as well as science. One thing I see in the data (I read the full report by the Gallup Organization) is that the public has a far more developed opinion of Hillary than of Rudy. That's to be expected since she was plastered all over the news for 10 years. Rudy has emerged as a national figure only in the last 4 years. What the public West of Appalachia knows about is his handling of 9/11 and possibly the Dapper Don. He has yet to recieve the scrutiny of a politician of Hillary's stature outside of New York. Public opinion is in a much greater state of flux with Rudy than with Hillary.

If and when he announces his candidacy all that will change. He will be tarred with the many scandals of his term as Mayor. That's not a slight of him in particular. Like any big city mayor, he's got some skeletons in his closet (the current Mayor of Chicago has whole cemetaries). Two that come to mind involve race relations and his choice of police commissioner. I expect there are others.

The data showed that big part of Rudy's strength lay in his ability to draw Democrats to his side. Those same voters are likely to have stronger feelngs on the issue of civil rights. His record on those issues will likely detract from his ability to draw crossover voters.

I'm not saying that he can't win. Just that this poll is, as Gallup states, a poor predictor of out come for the 2008 Presidential election.