Giuliani’s Tipping Point

    In his 2000 bestselling book The Tipping Point: How Little Things can make a big Difference, Malcolm Gladwell explores the idea of 'the tipping point,' the moment or time period when an item, an idea, a strategy or a person (or anything for that matter) changes from being just a 'product' into a cultural phenomenon. For example, the crackdown on quality of life crimes in New York City under Giuliani led to an overall 'crime tipping point' in that city where the crime rate went from a high point to an extremely low point in a short period of time, an amazing feat by any measure.

    In his book, Malcolm Gladwell writes about the dramatic crime rate change in New York City that happened under America's Mayor. This occurred, Gladwell argues, for several reasons but one of the main reasons behind it was Rudy Giuliani's focus and prosecution of quality of life crimes at the lowest level in the city. As mayor, Giuliani started aggressively going after those responsible for quality of life crimes, such as spraying graffiti and public drunkedness. After this crackdown began, the number of smaller crimes in the city began to decrease and the momentum began building up. With that momentum building, the number of larger crimes began to decrease and crime in the city tipped -- and suddenly, New York City had become much safer than it had been in years.

    This was one of the strongest examples of Gladwell’s book (which I strongly recommend, by the way) and it shows how one small idea transformed an entire city.

    As an example of this great momentum Giuliani has going for him, recent poll numbers have shown Giuliani rapidly expanding his lead. The latest poll from CNN conducted between March 9th and 11th has the former mayor of New York with the support of 34% of Republicans polled while McCain only has the support of 18% of the Republicans (and he’s in second place!). Meanwhile, the latest poll from the website Rasmussen Reports currently has 33% percent of Republican support behind Giuliani and only 15% of support behind McCain (poll conducted between March 12 and March 15th). Those two polls have Giuliani up by 16% and 18% respectively, an astounding gap with so many candidates in the field and a gap that seems to be expanding with every new poll between these two candidates.