I've said it before, Rudy has no chance because of the christian right. Reagan started and Dubya completed the transformation of the republican party. Before Reagan the whole split was over social programs/taxes/state v. fed. But now they've thrown in their version of morality. So the base for the party is gay rights, abortion, etc.
Rudy is too old school to win with that base. He either stands opposed to them or he (as he's doing) is forced to backpeddle on too much.

Bow ties are coool.