Oscar Predictions:

    It's Oscar time again, and the big question this year is whether Academy voters are going to allow "Crash" to crash "Brokeback Mountain's" party.

    Here are my predictions for this year's ceremony.

    Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
    George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."

    Analysis:
    There's no question that "Brokeback Mountain" will be the big winner this year, but don't count on a sweep. Gyllenhaal -- whose performance pales next to fellow "Brokeback" nominees Heath Ledger and Michelle Williams -- is just lucky to be nominated in the first place, so don't count on seeing him at the podium.

    In fact, there are far many more great performers who weren't nominated, most prominently Don Cheadle and Terrence Howard of "Crash." Both actors command your attention in the film, as does Dillon, who burns the screen with intensity as a racist cop and is definitely worthy of a win. Clooney's nomination comes probably more for his guts to take on relevant social issues with his movies than his actual performance, and Hurt, while always great, is hampered by a previous win for "Kiss of the Spider-Woman" (that second acting Oscar is always tough to come by).

    Prediction:
    Giamatti will score a knockout as James J. Braddock's (Russell Crowe) boxing trainer Joe Gould in "Cinderella Man." He's a journeyman actor who has always turned in solid performances, and a win this year will make-up for getting aced out of a nomination last year for "Sideways."

    Best Supporting Actress Nominees:

    Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; "Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."

    Analysis:

    All five nominees are deserving of a win in this category, but Adams will be hurt by the lower visibility of her film and McDormand has previously won for "Fargo" -- so another role with a "Minniesooohtah" accent is very unlikely. Keener and Williams benefit by the buzz of "Capote" and "Brokeback," respectively, but Weisz has seemingly unstoppable momentum with multiple wins this awards season -- most recently the coveted Screen Actors Guild Award.

    Prediction:

    Weisz will weed out a win for "The Constant Gardener," but don't count out Williams -- who delivered a heartbreaking performance in "Brokeback" -- scoring an upset.

    Best Actor Nominees:

    Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

    Analysis:

    Ledger is terrific in "Brokeback Mountain" as a stoic ranch hand struggling to hold his family together while dealing with his love for another rancher (Gyllenhaal) -- and Strathairn channels, for the lack a better word, Edward R. Murrow in "Good Night." Howard would have stood a better chance in the supporting category if he would have gotten the nod for "Crash," but the competition here is simply too stiff. Walking the same line for the Oscar are Hoffman and Phoenix.


    Prediction:

    Hoffman will win for "Capote." He's impressed for years, and his Truman Capote performance was like watching the real thing. Plus, he has awards season momentum, including the SAG Award. It will be painful to watch Phoenix lose for his incredible performance as Johnny Cash -- his loss as the evil Commodus in 2000's "Gladiator" was one of the biggest jokes in Oscar history.

    Best Actress Nominees:

    Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "TransAmerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride and Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

    Analysis:

    Dench, like Adams, is hurt by a film with low visibility, plus, she already has an Oscar on the mantel, which automatically lessens her chances. The same goes for Theron -- her win for "Monster" is still fresh in voters' minds, and besides, it was a much more powerful role than her turn in "North Country."

    With an incredible presence in everything she does, I'd love for Knightley to win for "Pride and Prejudice," but she's young and you can count on more Oscar-friendly roles coming her way. In the end, like the Best Actor race, it's a two-horse race -- this time between Huffman and Witherspoon.

    Prediction:

    Witherspoon has dominated this awards season for "Walk the Line" and it's going to happen again with a win on Oscar night. The win (which she can thank Phoenix for -- he's the soul of this movie) will be a squeaker, though, given the powerful impact Huffman has had as a man undergoing a sex change operation in "TransAmerica." Plus, Huffman has a great deal of visibility going for her as a perennial winner for "Desperate Housewives." Witherspoon won the SAG award, but that doesn't always guarantee a win. If that's the case, Renee Zellweger should have gone on to win for Best Actress for "Chicago" (it went to Nicole Kidman for "The Hours").

    Best Picture:

    "Brokeback Mountain"; "Capote"; "Crash"; "Good Night, and Good Luck"; "Munich."

    Analysis:

    With all due respect to "Good Night and Good Luck," "Capote," and "Munich," this is at best a two-picture race between "Brokeback" and "Crash." "Brokeback Mountain," though, appears to be a shoo-in for this award, having dominated awards season including top trophies from the Directors Guild of America, the Producers Guild of America and the British Academy Awards.

    A story about forbidden love between two ranch hands over 20 years starting in the 1960s, "Brokeback" is a good movie -- not a great movie -- and has deservedly earned its kudos as a social statement. But if it were to be judged as a piece of filmmaking (it's beautifully shot, the story is powerful, but let's face it: it is way too slow for the average moviegoer), it falls short of being "the best." Besides, "Crash" delivers compelling social commentary, too, and its intense atmosphere makes for a riveting film-going experience.

    Prediction:

    "Brokeback Mountain" will win, as will director Ang Lee for Best Director. Lee is loved in Hollywood," and so is this film. The only possible indicator of an upset is "Crash's" win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards, which is essentially the Screen Actors Guild's equivalent of a Best Picture trophy.

    But don't count on it this time, since the Academy will honor "Crash" with the Best Original Screenplay award -- which, not coincidentally, honors the film's co-writer and director, Paul Haggis.