RKMBs Forums .::Robegories::. Media Oscar Awards 2006

It's Oscar time again, and the big question this year is whether Academy voters are going to allow "Crash" to crash "Brokeback Mountain's" party.

Here are my predictions for this year's ceremony.

Best Supporting Actor Nominees:
George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."

Analysis:
There's no question that "Brokeback Mountain" will be the big winner this year, but don't count on a sweep. Gyllenhaal -- whose performance pales next to fellow "Brokeback" nominees Heath Ledger and Michelle Williams -- is just lucky to be nominated in the first place, so don't count on seeing him at the podium.

In fact, there are far many more great performers who weren't nominated, most prominently Don Cheadle and Terrence Howard of "Crash." Both actors command your attention in the film, as does Dillon, who burns the screen with intensity as a racist cop and is definitely worthy of a win. Clooney's nomination comes probably more for his guts to take on relevant social issues with his movies than his actual performance, and Hurt, while always great, is hampered by a previous win for "Kiss of the Spider-Woman" (that second acting Oscar is always tough to come by).

Prediction:
Giamatti will score a knockout as James J. Braddock's (Russell Crowe) boxing trainer Joe Gould in "Cinderella Man." He's a journeyman actor who has always turned in solid performances, and a win this year will make-up for getting aced out of a nomination last year for "Sideways."

Best Supporting Actress Nominees:

Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; "Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."

Analysis:

All five nominees are deserving of a win in this category, but Adams will be hurt by the lower visibility of her film and McDormand has previously won for "Fargo" -- so another role with a "Minniesooohtah" accent is very unlikely. Keener and Williams benefit by the buzz of "Capote" and "Brokeback," respectively, but Weisz has seemingly unstoppable momentum with multiple wins this awards season -- most recently the coveted Screen Actors Guild Award.

Prediction:

Weisz will weed out a win for "The Constant Gardener," but don't count out Williams -- who delivered a heartbreaking performance in "Brokeback" -- scoring an upset.

Best Actor Nominees:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle and Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Analysis:

Ledger is terrific in "Brokeback Mountain" as a stoic ranch hand struggling to hold his family together while dealing with his love for another rancher (Gyllenhaal) -- and Strathairn channels, for the lack a better word, Edward R. Murrow in "Good Night." Howard would have stood a better chance in the supporting category if he would have gotten the nod for "Crash," but the competition here is simply too stiff. Walking the same line for the Oscar are Hoffman and Phoenix.


Prediction:

Hoffman will win for "Capote." He's impressed for years, and his Truman Capote performance was like watching the real thing. Plus, he has awards season momentum, including the SAG Award. It will be painful to watch Phoenix lose for his incredible performance as Johnny Cash -- his loss as the evil Commodus in 2000's "Gladiator" was one of the biggest jokes in Oscar history.

Best Actress Nominees:

Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "TransAmerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride and Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North Country"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."

Analysis:

Dench, like Adams, is hurt by a film with low visibility, plus, she already has an Oscar on the mantel, which automatically lessens her chances. The same goes for Theron -- her win for "Monster" is still fresh in voters' minds, and besides, it was a much more powerful role than her turn in "North Country."

With an incredible presence in everything she does, I'd love for Knightley to win for "Pride and Prejudice," but she's young and you can count on more Oscar-friendly roles coming her way. In the end, like the Best Actor race, it's a two-horse race -- this time between Huffman and Witherspoon.

Prediction:

Witherspoon has dominated this awards season for "Walk the Line" and it's going to happen again with a win on Oscar night. The win (which she can thank Phoenix for -- he's the soul of this movie) will be a squeaker, though, given the powerful impact Huffman has had as a man undergoing a sex change operation in "TransAmerica." Plus, Huffman has a great deal of visibility going for her as a perennial winner for "Desperate Housewives." Witherspoon won the SAG award, but that doesn't always guarantee a win. If that's the case, Renee Zellweger should have gone on to win for Best Actress for "Chicago" (it went to Nicole Kidman for "The Hours").

Best Picture:

"Brokeback Mountain"; "Capote"; "Crash"; "Good Night, and Good Luck"; "Munich."

Analysis:

With all due respect to "Good Night and Good Luck," "Capote," and "Munich," this is at best a two-picture race between "Brokeback" and "Crash." "Brokeback Mountain," though, appears to be a shoo-in for this award, having dominated awards season including top trophies from the Directors Guild of America, the Producers Guild of America and the British Academy Awards.

A story about forbidden love between two ranch hands over 20 years starting in the 1960s, "Brokeback" is a good movie -- not a great movie -- and has deservedly earned its kudos as a social statement. But if it were to be judged as a piece of filmmaking (it's beautifully shot, the story is powerful, but let's face it: it is way too slow for the average moviegoer), it falls short of being "the best." Besides, "Crash" delivers compelling social commentary, too, and its intense atmosphere makes for a riveting film-going experience.

Prediction:

"Brokeback Mountain" will win, as will director Ang Lee for Best Director. Lee is loved in Hollywood," and so is this film. The only possible indicator of an upset is "Crash's" win for Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards, which is essentially the Screen Actors Guild's equivalent of a Best Picture trophy.

But don't count on it this time, since the Academy will honor "Crash" with the Best Original Screenplay award -- which, not coincidentally, honors the film's co-writer and director, Paul Haggis.

A story about forbidden love between two ranch hands over 20 years starting in the 1960s, "Brokeback" is a good movie -- not a great movie -- and has deservedly earned its kudos as a social statement. But if it were to be judged as a piece of filmmaking (it's beautifully shot, the story is powerful, but let's face it: it is way too slow for the average moviegoer)

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Matter-eater Man said:
I'm guessing this is one of those reviewers that liked Sideways.

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Giamatti will score a knockout ...a win this year will make-up for getting aced out of a nomination last year for "Sideways."

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the G-man said:

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Matter-eater Man said:
I'm guessing this is one of those reviewers that liked Sideways.

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I'm guessing you are correct, given that the reviewer wrote:

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Giamatti will score a knockout ...a win this year will make-up for getting aced out of a nomination last year for "Sideways."

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Dr. Tran said:
We think Brokeback Mountain will win. It's the year of the homossecxual!!

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Black cats, broken mirrors and voodoo don’t seem to have anything to do with winning an Oscar. But the superstitious swear that taking home an Academy Award is just as much of a curse as encountering those other, more traditional carriers of bad luck.

Bygone Best Actors and Best Actresses like Halle Berry, Julia Roberts, Nicole Kidman, Gwyneth Paltrow, Adrien Brody and Roberto Benigni know from experience. They’ve all stumbled — or in the case of Benigni, fallen off the face of the earth, save for an embarrassing stint in “Pinocchio” — since attaining the top film honor, bouncing from one bad role or box-office dud to the next with few bright spots in between.

“The Oscar is supposed to be the ultimate blessing on one’s career and often it turns out to be a curse,” said Tom O’Neil, a columnist with The Los Angeles Times’ awards Web site TheEnvelope.com. “Many winners have said so.”

Among those who have come to view their gold as a bad spell cast upon them: 1930s actress Luise Rainer, Dianne Wiest, Richard Dreyfuss and Paltrow, according to O’Neil.

The Oscar curse, then — if there is one — seems to be multi-layered. Winning an Academy Award can lead stars to be offered too many roles, making it hard for them to choose good ones. It can also lead them to be offered too few roles because of the perception that their asking price is unaffordable and their star status has made them so recognizable that they’re not convincing actors anymore.

It can also corrupt them, sending them into a downward spiral of addiction and other personal problems, or it can go to their heads, making their standards so unrealistically high that they hold out for perfect parts that never come.

There’s also talk of a special bad omen looming over the supporting actor and actress awards, with Marisa Tomei (who won in 1993 for “My Cousin Vinny”), Cuba Gooding Jr. (who got it in 1997 for “Jerry Maguire”) and Mira Sorvino (who snatched it in 1996 for “Mighty Aphrodite”) among those singled out as having encountered it.

This is my first annual Oscar predictions column, for which I am uniquely qualified by not having seen a single one of the movies nominated in any category. I've never even watched an Oscar ceremony, except once when a friend called me 35 minutes into Halle Berry's acceptance speech and I managed to catch only the last 20 minutes of it.

I shall grant my awards based on the same criteria Hollywood studio executives now use to green-light movies: political correctness. Also, judging by most of the nominees this year, the awards committee prefers movies that are wildly unpopular with audiences.

I shall summarize the plots of the five movies nominated for best picture below:

-- "Brokeback Mountain" (gay)

-- "Capote" (death penalty with bonus gay lead)

-- "Crash" (racism)

-- "Good Night, and Good Luck" (McCarthyism)

-- "Munich" (Jew athletes at Munich had it coming)

Everyone says it's going to be "Crash," but I think "Crash" is too popular with filmgoers. Moreover, Hollywood feels it has done enough for the blacks. Hollywood can never do enough for the gays. Gays in the military, gays in the Texas Rangers, gays on the range. It's like a brokeback record! As Pat Buchanan said, homosexuality has gone from "the love that dare not speak its name" to "the love that won't shut up."

Is the idea of gay cowboys really that new? Didn't the Village People do that a couple of decades ago? Am I the only person who saw John Travolta in "Urban Cowboy"?

Movies with the same groundbreaking theme to come:

-- "Westward Homo!"

-- "The Magnificent, Fabulous Seven"

-- "Gunfight at the K-Y Corral"

-- "How West Hollywood Was Won"

OK, back to predictions. The best director award will go to ... Ang Lee, director of "Brokeback Mountain." (For analysis, see above.) Also, this is gays directed by an Asian, which should satisfy the gaysians. Hands down: Ang Lee.

The nominees for best actor in a leading role are:

-- Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"

-- Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"

-- Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"

-- Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"

-- David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck"

The winner in this category will be ... Philip Seymour Hoffman. The awards committee can't give everything to "Brokeback Mountain," and at least Truman Capote was gay (though not a cowboy). I personally would have chosen the lion in the Narnia movie, but he wasn't even nominated.

The nominees for best actress in a leading role are:

-- Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"

-- Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"

-- Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"

-- Charlize Theron, "North Country"

-- Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line"

I gather Reese Witherspoon is very good in "Walk the Line," but that's irrelevant -- this is the Oscars! Felicity Huffman plays a pre-op transsexual in "Transamerica." That strikes a chord in Hollywood. It's not exactly gay, but close enough! I say Huffman wins.

For best actress in a supporting role, Rachel Weisz ought to win for "The Constant Gardener" because it's about how drug companies are evil, which to me is the essence of quality acting. Plus, English accent equals good acting. But Michelle Williams ("Brokeback Mountain") is engaged to Heath Ledger, who played a gay guy in "Brokeback Mountain." So I pick Weisz, with Williams as the dark-horse favorite.

The best original screenplay will be "Good Night, and Good Luck" as Hollywood's final tribute to the old Stalinists (Hollywood's version of "The Greatest Generation"). George Clooney has been mau-mauing the awards committee by going around boasting that conservatives have called him a "traitor," although I believe the precise term was "airhead."

Finally, my favorite category: best foreign language film. The nominees are:

-- "Don't Tell" (Italy)

-- "Joyeux Noel" (France)

-- "Paradise Now" (Palestine)

-- "Sophie Scholl" (Germany)

-- "Tsotsi" (South Africa)

After consulting with the Yale admissions committee, the awards committee will give the Oscar to ... "Paradise Now," a heartwarming story about Palestinian suicide bombers. How good is it? Al-Jazeera gave it 4 1/2 pipe bombs. It's Air Syria's featured in-flight movie this month -- go figure! I don't want to spoil the ending for you, but let's just say there won't be a sequel.

Normally, the smart money is on the Holocaust movie, so any other year, "Sophie Scholl" would have been the clear favorite. Unfortunately for the makers of "Sophie Scholl," their Holocaust movie came out the same year as a pro-terrorist movie, so they lose.

As a final prediction, for the second year, there will be no mention of Dutch filmmaker Theo van Gogh, who was brutally murdered by an angry Muslim a little over a year ago on the streets of Amsterdam. (Now that's blacklisted!)

I also predict this will be the lowest-rated Oscars ever. Remember to turn off your cell phones, no talking ... or sleeping.

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rex said:
Who gives a fuck what man coulter thinks?

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rex said:
Who gives a fuck what man coulter thinks?

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rex said:
Maybe jim jackson will stop being a bitch then.

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rex said:
Who gives a fuck what man coulter thinks?

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rex said:
Maybe I don't give a fuck about anything you link it or say.

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Im Not Mister Mxypltk said:
Bet she's a mexican!

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the G-man said:
At this point, do they really think its original to have an animated character present an award?

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PJP said:
Jennifer Lopez has gotten uglier by the minute

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Rex said:
Who gives a fuck what man coulter thinks?

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Jim Jackson said:
I'll further suggest that Ann is more than welcome to fuck off.

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Jeremy said:
I want to be in Salma Hayek's wonderful cleavage.

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I agree with all of this...