Western Conference Predictions(from an e-mail I sent to a friend) 1 Detroit vs. 8 Edmonton
2 Dallas vs. 7 Colorado
3 Calgary vs. 6 Anaheim
4 Nashville vs. 5 San Jose
The scary thing about these match ups is that I see them all as possible upsets.
1 Detroit vs. 8 EdmontonDetroit does have weaknesses, and Edmonton is the perfect team to expose them. Edmonton is younger and faster than Detroit. Edmonton is more physical than Detroit. Chris Pronger is used to playing Detroit in the playoffs (maybe he's the reason for the match up with St. Louis out of the picture), and Michael Peca has always been a clutch performer in the post seaon. Ryan Smyth and Sergei Samsonov are big time goal scores, and Jason Smith is a big time defensive defenseman. Plus, Tarntstrom and Spacek can move the puck better than Pronger, whose shot is almost as good as his mentor's, Al MacInnis.
However, Detroit rolls three scoring lines and an Edmonton style checking line I like to call the new grind line. And while Roloson was instrumental in helping Minnesota to the conference finals three years ago, he's a little bit older now, and he has not been as consistent this season, especially in Edmonton. In Detroit, Legace has been phenomenal at times, and the reason Detroit was able to come from behind only a two goal deficit tonight was because Legace willed the puck to stay out of the net. The other reason was a Swede named Zetterberg, and the Swedish Connection.
I don't want to say sweep, but I don't think it will take Detroit six games to beat Edmonton. I do see a lot of overtime in this series (only one of the four games ended in regulation this season), and that's where Detroit's veteran presence has the ability to take over.
I think Detroit will win this in five, but it might feel more like eight, and those late starts in Edmonton might make it feel even longer.
2 Dallas vs. 7 ColoradoDallas and Colorado have a great rivalry, and I think I want Dallas to win because I don't like the idea of playing Colorado in the second round. However, Colorado, like Dallas, has a lot of veteran presence, and they know how to score the big goal and protect the lead. What will decide this series is goaltending. Turco just hasn't lived up to expectations in the playoffs. While Theodore has been hurt for some time, he's back, and if he's healthy, he has the ability to steal a series on his own. It wasn't a fluke when Theodore won both the Vezina and the Hart, and he did it in his home town of Montreal. If Patrick Roy says he's the real deal, there is no one qualified to argue with that opinion.
The fact is, Theodore really scares me. I don't think he'll start out hot. In fact, I think the first three games will look more like shoot outs, with Turco winning one or two close ones. I think the series will be tied at four a piece, and after that, I think we'll be looking at some very tight, low scoring games. Taking that into consideration, I think Colorado wins game seven in double overtime on the road.
3 Calgary vs. 6 AnaheimWhile the top two seeds play exciting hockey, Calgary is boring. Anaheim will have it's work cut out for it playing the new master of the trap. Calgary knows it can't score a lot of goals, and that's why the team, especially Iginla, has sacrificed offense for almost perfect defense. Kiprisoff is currently the best there is between the pipes, and this young team loves to hit. Plus, Marchment will be head hunting, and one good knee to Selanne could sink the Ducks in the Pond.
However, Anaheim is seeing the resurgence of Giguere, last season's Norris Trophy winner is healthy again, and Selanne is back in form. Like Calgary, Anaheim is young, fast, and physical. Salei will be looking for Iginla, so their could be a draw if things get really ugly.
This series will also come down to goaltending. Anaheim has impressed me a lot more than Calgary, and both goalies have taken their teams to the Stanley Cup finals. The difference is Giguere skated away with the Conn Smyth, and I think that just might be the edge in what should be another seven game series with lots of overtime.
4 Nashville vs. 5 San JoseFinally, Nashville lost Vokoun, but so far Mason has filled in admirably. Still, Mason is not Vokoun. But it's not like San Jose has a proven goalie either. Nabokov has lost his job to Toskala, probably for good. Still, Nashville needed Vokoun to win this series, and with him out of the picture, I just don't see them able to stop the one-two punch of Thornton and Marleau. Joe Thornton is probably the league MVP, and he's motivated to show Boston just how wrong they were. Nashville should be able to win one or two games, as they do have the heart to back up the talent up front, but with Zidlicky questionable (de'javu) and Vokoun out, San Jose should be able to wrap this up in six games. Nashville will probably win the close ones, but San Jose will get a couple of blowouts, and Kariya will not be able to stop Cheechoo from sealing the series in the opening minutes OT. I would not be surprised if San Jose swept this series.
Eastern Conference Predictions1 Ottawa vs. 8 Tamba Bay
2 Carolina vs. 7 Montreal
3 New Jersey vs. New York Rangers
4 Buffalo vs. 5 Philadelphia
Again, on the surface, this looks like a conference ripe for upset, however...
1 Ottawa vs. 8 Tamba BayKhabibulin ran off to Chicago to become the highest paid goalie in the NHL, but he's not the only key player who walked away from the 2004 Stanley Cup Champions. This team played poor hockey all season while Ottawa reintroduced fire waggon hockey to the NHL. While Ottawa's Cup hopes may well rest on the groin of Dominic Hasek, Ray Emery has shown this season that he should at least be good enough to get his team past the first round. Ottawa should win this in five, six at the most. If the Lightning can somehow push this to seven, anything goes.
2 Carolina vs. 7 MontrealCarolina plays offense. Montreal plays defense. Carolina likes Gerber. Montreal likes Huet. Montreal has Aebischer as a back up. Gerber is better than both. All that said, Carolina is too deep to lose this series to a weaker Montreal team that almost didn't make the playoffs. Carolina should win in six, but it could take seven because Montreal plays a tough game.
3 New Jersey vs. New York RangersWriting this a day after Jagr got hurt doesn't really change what I have to say. If Jagr is healthy, he can win a round on his own. It doesn't matter that Brodeur is in net for the Devils. However, without Jagr, Brodeur wins. It also helps Brodeur to have Gomez, Elias, and Gianta all driving hard to the net. This is a New Jersey team in transition, and they took a big hit on their blue line losing both Stevens and Neidermayer. However, it looks like they should win their first round seires against the NYR in five or six games.
4 Buffalo vs. 5 PhiladelphiaPeople say Forsberg can will a team to win. If that's the case, then why did he only win two championships in Colorado with that stacked roster? Healthy or not, Buffalo has better goaltending, faster skaters, and looks more like a team. I never like Hithcock as a coach, and he has not adapted to the "new" NHL. The Flyers are still big and slow, and if the NHL does conintue to actually call penalties, Buffalo should take this series in five.
So, those are my predictions. Anyone have any thoughts ont he playoffs? That is, other than hockey sucks and all that.
