This intelligence report evaluates that Iran's nuclear weapons program was likely (though not absolutely) suspended in 2003. It was just released yesterday.

Whomod acts like the Bush administration are a bunch of villainous liars, who have been deliberately exaggerating the nuclear capability of Iran. But the report was released yesterday. And again, it is not absolute.

There was no advance warning that North Korea was going nuclear.

There was no advance warning that Libya was going nuclear --until they chose to give up their nukes program to U.N. weapons inspectors, in fear of invasion after seeing Saddam Hussein's fate in 2003.

There was no advance notice of the fall of the Berlin wall, the collapse of Eastern Europe in 1989, or the fall of the Soviet Union itself in 1991.

So assurances that Iran poses no danger of going nuclear cannot be trusted 100%.


I see a nuclear-armed Iran as a very serious threat to global security, with Iran's pre-eminent involvement in arming, training and supplying various terrorist groups in the Middle East region, and suicide bombers. A nation that looks favorably on suicide bombing is not one we can ever permit to acquire nuclear bombs. And a nation whose leadership has made clear rhetoric of needing nuclear weapons to advance the cause of fundamentalist Islam. And in particular Ahmadinijad's vow to "wipe Israel off the map".
These are people fanatical enough to not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

But Iran's nuclear program is not an imminent threat at this point. Even in the worst case scenario, U.S. intelligence estimates Iran to acquire nukes by 2009, and not have missiles to carry them until 2013.
So I don't see this as something Bush has to deal with, and would prefer to see the next president handle military action against Iraq, if it comes to that. Although it could be like South Africa, where the WMD-eager apartheid government wanted nukes, but the new Mandela government handed the whole program over to weapons inspectors to dismantle.

North Korea is likewise moving toward negotiating its nukes away in exchange for security assurances, although that deal isn't done yet.

I know Bush would like to invade Iran, but I don't think he can rally the support to do it, and I don't want him to anyway. That's a decision best left to the next administration, which is only a year away.