Originally Posted By: the G-man
I wouldn't worry, P. I think that, short of some unexpected event, McCain has the nomination sewn up at this point.


 Originally Posted By: thedoctor
We still haven't seen the majority of the Southeast just yet. Huckabee might throw a wrench in that plan if the evangelicals come out in force.


The next big event is, of course, Super Tuesday. The following big delegate states hold their primaries that day: California, New York, Georgia, Missouri, Illinois and New Jersey.

I don't see how McCain doesn't win CA, NY, IL and NJ. Huckabee might pick up Georgia or Missouri, but he still has Romney to contend with in those states.

In regard to the other Super Tuesday states, the Associated
Press notes:

  • Of the 15 other states that will vote, three are home states that each candidate is all but certain to win — Arizona for McCain, Massachusetts for Romney and Arkansas for Huckabee.

    Utah is essentially a second home for Romney; its large Mormon population is likely to give him a win. He also will look to win in states that hold caucuses — Alaska, Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota — and one that holds a state convention, West Virginia.

    McCain could do well in Western states of Oklahoma and New Mexico, as well as moderate Northeastern states like Connecticut and Delaware. Huckabee will look to a Southern swath of conservative bastions like Tennessee to validate his weakened candidacy.

    Montana is a wild card.


So, I think you're correct that Huckabee might pick up support in the south. However, when you look at McCain's lead in the delegate rich states and the fact that he's already the frontrunner in terms of delegates, I think it would be very, very, hard for Huckabee to win at this point.