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Published Saturday | April 5, 2008
Superdelegate pendulum appears to be swinging swiftly toward Obama

WASHINGTON — Nearly three weeks remain before the next Democratic primary, but the results are rolling in from another part of the presidential contest — and they signify trouble for Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Democratic Party officials and insiders known as superdelegates are jumping to Barack Obama's camp or signaling that that is where they are headed.

Clinton trails Obama in fundraising and in total number of delegates awarded so far in state primaries and caucuses. One bright spot for her campaign had been the quest for superdelegates — the nearly 800 elected officials and Democratic activists who are not bound by election results and are free to vote at the party's nominating convention for the candidate of their choice.

Because neither Clinton nor Obama is likely to emerge from the primary season with enough elected delegates to lock down the nomination, endorsements by superdelegates could be the key to victory.

In December, according to the Associated Press, Clinton led Obama by 106 superdelegates. In February, her lead had been cut to 87. Thursday, it was 30.

Obama has won more pledged delegates in primaries and caucuses, giving him the overall delegate lead, 1,635 to 1,501. Needed to win the nomination: 2,024.

In recent days, Wyoming Gov. David Freudenthal and Sens. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Robert Casey Jr. of Pennsylvania have announced their support for Obama.

In an embarrassment for Clinton, one of the superdelegates supporting her, Rep. Emanuel Cleaver, D-Mo., predicted in an interview with a Canadian radio station over the weekend that Obama would win the nomination and the presidency.

"I will be stunned if he's not the next president of the United States," Cleaver said.

Obama's gains among superdelegates have come even though he trails Clinton in public opinion surveys in the next state to vote — Pennsylvania, on April 22.

Obama is winning over superdelegates because "his arguments are more persuasive," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who is unaffiliated in the race. "She obviously hopes that's going to change with Pennsylvania and races down the road. But for now, his arguments are being more persuasive with those superdelegates."

A major objective of Clinton's superdelegate operation is keeping supporters from defecting. Working from her campaign headquarters, a team of aides stays in seemingly constant contact with superdelegates committed to Clinton, sending them poll numbers and news articles meant to keep them from bolting.

Some superdelegates in Clinton's camp have suggested they might reconsider if she cannot meet certain goals, such as overcoming Obama's lead in the popular vote total. With 10 contests remaining, Obama has won about 700,000 more votes than Clinton. That tally excludes the votes in Florida and Michigan, which are not being recognized by the national Democratic Party.

Clinton aides would prefer that superdelegates consider a broader set of criteria, such as which candidate is likely to be more electable in the fall, or who ran the strongest in pivotal states such as Florida and Ohio.